Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

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Buck Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 9:11 pm · times in CT · no Nasty Picks yet

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

NASTY PICKDallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers +0.5

-115as called

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. I looked. Twice.

A little nasty, if you want action: 3 sneakies; the strongest is Michigan State +14.5 (Michigan State at UCLA) at edge +1.7%. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one whose number has improved is Michigan State at UCLA, Michigan State +14.5: 2 points better for Michigan State than at the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Michigan State at UCLA, Michigan State +14.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. The Cut is a main book a point or more off Pinnacle's number, and it switches on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

No sneakies today. The market has this slate.

Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 3 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Michigan State +14.5, NC State -7, Sam Houston +3. Open

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college; a college system that still hasn't rebuilt by Tuesday 9am sits out until it does, and its games are priced without it. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Michigan State at UCLABetter number · 2 pts since openMichigan State +14.5should be Michigan State +13.5 · 1 pt better than fair at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

1.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Michigan State):

FanDuel+14.5 -110edge +1.7%
BetMGM+14 -105edge +0.9%
DraftKings +1+14 -108edge +0.2%
Fanatics+14 -110edge -0.2%
Kalshi+14.5 -126 (54¢)edge -1.6%
1 more at worse prices

NC State at StanfordNC State -7should be NC State -7.5 · 0.5 pts better than fair at FanaticsA Little Nasty strengthFri 9:30pm Buck's case ›

1.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (NC State):

Fanatics +1-7 -110edge +1.3%
DraftKings-7 -112edge +0.8%
Kalshi +1-7.5 +101edge +0.5%
Caesars-7 -114edge +0.4%
Guido-7 -115edge +0.2%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -6.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than -7 (the games that land on 7); -144 (57¢ on the app) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

New Mexico State at Sam HoustonSam Houston +3should be Sam Houston +2.5 · 0.5 pts better than fair at DraftKingsA Little Nasty strengthWed 7:00pm Buck's case ›

0.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Sam Houston):

DraftKings+3 -115edge +0.7%
FanDuel+3.5 -132edge +0.5%
Fanatics+2.5 +100edge +0.4%
Caesars+3 -117edge +0.3%
Guido+3 -120edge -0.4%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -132 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -115. The price wins by a hair.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Totals only, ranked by edge, each posted at the number shown and graded there in its own record. Not a Nasty Pick; size it that way.

How a total is read

Two numbers read every total: the model (each team's pace, efficiency and scoring this season, the weather and the market, fitted on four seasons) and the pace number (plays times points per play). College posts when the total opens 2 or more off the model with the pace number on the same side, or 3 off either alone; the read is good for about 12 hours. The NFL posts when the model sits 4 or more off the market, any day of the week; it is the newest number here with the shortest record. Team totals and first-half totals read the pace number at 3 points scaled to their size. The edge is the backtest's win chance on a gap that size less what the price costs: low single digits at best, and the ranking is the point.

Akron at Kent State#1 Over 43.5-102 at DraftKings · model 46.9, pace number 49, market 43.5, ratings 47.7 · edge +2.2%Model and paceSat 12:00pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 44.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 43.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

Duke at Virginia#2 Over 48.5-105 at FanDuel · model 52, pace number 49.1, market 48.5 · edge +1.5%Model numberFri 6:00pmStill there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -127, FanDuel 46.5 -110, Caesars 46.5 -114.

Michigan State at UCLABetter number · 2 pts since open#3 Over 47.5-106 at FanDuel · model 50.7, pace number 50.5, market 47.5, ratings 51.1 · edge +1.3%Model and paceSat 2:30pmStill there: DraftKings 45.5 -105, FanDuel 45.5 -105, BetMGM 45.5 -105.

Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech#4 Over 45.5-108 at BetMGM · model 48.7, pace number 50.8, market 45.5, ratings 48.6 · edge +0.8%Model and paceSat 4:00pmStill there: DraftKings -108, BetMGM -110, DraftKings Predictions -117.

San José State at Nevada#5 Over 45.5-108 at BetMGM · model 48.4, pace number 48.9, market 45.5 · edge +0.8%Model and paceSat 4:00pmStill there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -110.

Colts at Vikings#6 Over 42.5-106 at FanDuel · model 49.9, pace number 44.7, market 42.5 · edge +0.7%Model numberSun 12:00pmStill there: Caesars 41.5 -114, DraftKings 41.5 -115, BetMGM 42 -108.

Steelers at Saints#7 Over 44.5+100 at Kalshi · model 50.4, pace number 48.4, market 44.2 · edge +0.4%Model numberSun 8:30amStill there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -112.

Syracuse at North Carolina#8 Over 44.5-110 at FanDuel · model 48.9, pace number 50.7, market 44.5, ratings 47.7 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 6:30pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 45.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 44.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

22 more

Bowling Green at Buffalo#9 Over 43.5-110 at DraftKings · model 46.7, pace number 48.6, market 43.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 2:30pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 44.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 43.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

Indiana at Michigan#10 Over 43.5-110 at DraftKings · model 47.3, pace number 47.1, market 43.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 11:00amStill there: Caesars 41.5 -107, DraftKings 41.5 -110, Fanatics 41.5 -110.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky#11 Over 51.5-110 at DraftKings · model 54.3, pace number 55, market 51.5, ratings 57.7 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 6:30pmStill there: BetMGM -105, DraftKings -110, FanDuel -110.

UL Monroe at Troy#12 Over 50.5-110 at DraftKings · model 53.8, pace number 52.6, market 50.5, ratings 57.2 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 3:00pmStill there: FanDuel -112, DraftKings -115, BetMGM -115.

Hawai'i at Northern Illinois#13 Over 45.5-110 at DraftKings · model 48.8, pace number 47.5, market 45.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 2:30pmStill there: DraftKings Predictions -122.

New Mexico State at Sam Houston#14 Over 50.5-110 at FanDuel · model 55.5, pace number 48.6, market 50.5, ratings 47.3 · edge +0.3%Model numberWed 7:00pmStill there: BetMGM 44.5 -112, Caesars 44.5 -113, FanDuel 44.5 -114.

North Texas at Navy#15 Under 61.5-110 at DraftKings · model 56, pace number 59.8, market 61.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 2:30pmStill there: BetMGM 62.5 -112, Fanatics 62 -110, Caesars 62 -112.

San Diego State at Colorado State#16 Under 61.5-110 at Fanatics · model 59, pace number 59.9, market 61.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 5:30pmThe number is gone. Best now Under 60.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 61.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

Boise State at Washington State#17 Over 50.5-110 at FanDuel · model 52.7, pace number 51.5, market 50.5 · edge +0.3%Model and paceSat 5:00pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 51 at Fanatics: the total has moved 0.5 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 50.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

California at SMU#18 Over 53.5-110 at Fanatics · model 57.3, pace number 53.4, market 53.6 · edge +0.3%Model numberSat 11:00amStill there: Fanatics -110, BetMGM -110, FanDuel -112.

Western Michigan at Toledo#19 Over 44.5-110 at DraftKings · model 45.6, pace number 50.9, market 44.5Pace numberSat 11:00amThe number is gone. Best now Over 45.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 44.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

Massachusetts at UConn#20 Over 45.5-150 at DraftKings Predictions · model 49.6, pace number 54, market 48, ratings 56Pace numberFri 6:00pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 48.5 at Caesars: the total has moved 3 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 45.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

BYU at UCF#21 Over 45.5-110 at DraftKings · model 46.2, pace number 50.8, market 45.5Pace numberSat 2:30pmStill there: DraftKings Predictions 42.5 -138, Fanatics 44 -115, DraftKings 44.5 -105.

Iowa at Minnesota#22 Over 42.5-110 at DraftKings · model 39.9, pace number 47.5, market 42.5Pace numberSat 2:30pmStill there: DraftKings Predictions 39.5 -144, DraftKings 40.5 -120, Fanatics 41 -110.

West Virginia at TCU#23 Under 58.5-110 at Fanatics · model 57.5, pace number 54.2, market 58.5Pace numberSat 11:00amThe number is gone. Best now Under 57.5 at DraftKings Predictions: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 58.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

Utah State at Texas State#24 Under 59.5-110 at FanDuel · model 61.7, pace number 55.4, market 59.5Pace numberSat 6:30pmThe number is gone. Best now Under 59 at Fanatics: the total has moved 0.5 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 59.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

Oklahoma at Mississippi State#25 Over 46.5-115 at FanDuel · model 47.8, pace number 50.7, market 46.6, ratings 51Pace numberSat 2:30pmStill there: FanDuel 45.5 -112, DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -122, Fanatics 46 -110.

Sacramento State at Ball State#26 Over 48.5-122 at DraftKings Predictions · model 51.3, pace number 53.3, market 49.5Pace numberSat 2:30pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 50.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 2 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 48.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

Colorado at Oklahoma State#27 Under 55.5-112 at FanDuel · model 55, pace number 51.9, market 55.5, ratings 48.4Pace numberSat 6:00pmStill there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -105, Fanatics -110.

Baylor at Kansas#28 Under 54.5-110 at FanDuel · model 55.2, pace number 50.9, market 54.5Pace numberSat 12:00pmStill there: DraftKings -110, Caesars -110, Fanatics -110.

James Madison at App State#29 Under 58.5-110 at FanDuel · model 58.3, pace number 54.7, market 58, ratings 52.6Pace numberThu 6:00pmThe number is gone. Best now Under 57.5 at DraftKings Predictions: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 58.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

Rutgers at Northwestern#30 Under 58.5-110 at DraftKings · model 58.8, pace number 55.2, market 58.3Pace numberSat 11:00amStill there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110.

Moved closer since the 6:12pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 6:12pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Sacramento State at Ball State Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Ball State -9.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from +12.0 to -10.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
LSU at Auburn Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Auburn +9.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +6.5 to +8.5; the price from +110 to -110; the market drifted 0.9 away from the Nasty Number. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Rutgers at Northwestern Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Northwestern -14.5: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -16.5 to -16.0; the price from -110 to -108. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Mississippi State +4.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to +3.0; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

Key and ratings status

College ratingsSP+Sun 1:21pm✓FPISun 10:41am✓SagarinSun 10:41am✓MasseySun 12:18am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 122 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloFri 3:34pm✓FPISun 6:03am✓SagarinTue 1:16am✓MasseySat 12:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 24 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

When the Nasty Number disagrees with the market by 3 or more, that side has covered 8 of 31 this season.

Nasty Pick a main book a point or more off Pinnacle and the other books, at its real price. Go nowDamn Near Nasty the Four agree against the number: Buck's read, not the Cut. Dogs carry the DOG chipA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedTotals That Are Just Flat Nasty a total the model and the pace number have off the market; its own record, never a pickNot Nasty the market has it right

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

NFL tomorrow 7:15pm

49ers -7.5

Nasty Number 49ers by 8 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 7.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 7.5Guido, -108

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 7

FPI

49ers by 9.5

Sagarin

49ers by 8.5

Massey

49ers by 10

Nasty Number

49ers by 80.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52Guido

Model number

52.40.4 pts over the market

Pace number

51.30.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

52on the market

FPI

511 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.3, 1 pt under the market's 52.3; the model says 52.4, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Commanders ML
Guido	-7.5 -108	52 -115	-410	+300
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 -104	52.5 -103	-410	+329

All 26 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Commanders ML
Guido	-7.5 -108	52 -115	-410	+300
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -107	51.5 -109	-455	+325
BetAnything	-7.5 -110	52 -115	-400	+320
BetMGM	-7.5 -105	52 -110	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -108	52 -115	-410	+324
betPARX	-7.5 -107	51.5 -109	-455	+325
BetRivers	-7.5 -107	51.5 -109	-455	+325
BetUS	-8 -105	52 -110	-425	+333
Bovada	-7.5 -110	52.5 -110	-430	+320
Caesars	-7.5 -109	52 -112	-420	+320
Courtside	-7.5 -110	52.5 -103	-440	+360
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	52.5 -105	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-7.5 -108	51.5 -112	-420	+330
Fliff	-7.5 -110	52.5 -105	-500	+335
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-475	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-475	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-475	+325
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -103	52 -113	-410	+324
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-441	+330
Pinnacle	-7.5 -104	52.5 -103	-410	+329
Polymarket	-7.5 +100	52.5 +104	-376	+355
ReBet	-7.5 -110	52 -110	-429	+340
theScore Bet	-7.5 -110	52.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -7.5 · -108 (50¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (49ers):

BetMGM-7.5 -105edge -0.4%
Kalshi +2-7.5 -107edge -0.9%
DraftKings Predictions +1-7.5 -108 (50¢ on the app)edge -1.1%
DraftKings +1-7.5 -110edge -1.5%

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -410 at Guido

We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win):

Kalshi-404 (79¢)edge -3.6%
Guido-410edge -3.9%
Caesars +3-420edge -4.2%
DraftKings Predictions-426 (79¢ on the app)edge -4.5%
DraftKings-455edge -5.5%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 52.5

The pace number is 51.3, 1 pt under the market's 52.3; the model says 52.4, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 64°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers), Marques Sigle (S, 49ers) and 3 more.

Guido: total 52.0 here against 52.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.0	-301
FPI	-9.5	-370
Sagarin	-8.5	-355
Massey	-10.0	-415
Market (22 books)	-7.5	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -7.5	-108	-104	-1.1%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-410	-326	priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-105	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.6.

Guido: total 52.0 here against 52.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tue Oct 20

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

South Alabama Jaguars at Marshall Thundering Herd

CFB Tue 20 Oct, 6:30pm

South Alabama -3

should be South Alabama -3 at BetMGM · was -2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says South Alabama by 3, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

South Alabama by 3Guido, -111

The Four

SP+

Marshall by 14.1 pts against us

FPI

South Alabama by 6.53.3 pts our side

Sagarin

South Alabama by 74 pts our side

Massey

South Alabama by 21.1 pts against us

Nasty Number

South Alabama by 30.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean South Alabama. SP+ at Marshall by 1 and Massey at South Alabama by 2 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

64.5Guido

Model number

62.22.3 pts under the market

Pace number

61.62.9 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

77.613.1 pts over the market

Massey

68.33.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 61.6, 2.7 pts under the market's 64.2; the model says 62.2, 2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 62.5 to 64.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	South Alabama ML
Guido	+3 -111	64.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	64.5 -112 51¢	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
Pinnacle	+3 -114	64 -117	+126	-148

All 23 books

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	South Alabama ML
Guido	+3 -111	64.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	64.5 -112 51¢	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -103	64.5 -108	+128	-159
BetAnything	+3 -110	64.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3 -118	64.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -111	64.5 -110	+125	-145
betPARX	+2.5 -103	64.5 -108	+128	-159
BetRivers	+2.5 -104	64.5 -109	+128	-159
BetUS	+3 -110	64.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 -115	64.5 -110	+125	-145
Caesars	+3 -109	64.5 -112	+129	-152
Courtside	+3 -110	64.5 -110	+133	-152
DraftKings	+3 -112	64.5 -112	+130	-155
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in	63.5 55¢ -132 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -115	64.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -102	64.5 -108	+122	-146
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +100	64.5 -110	+130	-160
LowVig.ag	+3 -107	64.5 -108	+125	-145
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	64.5 -110	+126	-155
Pinnacle	+3 -114	64 -117	+126	-148
Polymarket	+2.5 +108	—	—	-144
ReBet	+3.5 -128	64.5 -114	+126	-155
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	64.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama -3.0 · -102 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Alabama):

BetMGM-3 -102edge +1.1%
FanDuel-2.5 -120edge +0.4%
Fanatics-3 -105edge +0.3%
Kalshi-2.5 -121 (53¢)edge +0.2%
DraftKings-3 -108edge -0.4%
3 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

South Alabama to win · -145 at Guido

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (South Alabama to win):

Guido +1-145edge +0.5%
Fanatics +1-150edge -0.3%
Caesars-152edge -0.6%
Kalshi +1-155edge -1.0%
DraftKings Predictions-157 (59¢ on the app)edge -1.3%

Not Nasty

The total · 64

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama -3.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 60°F.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 64.5 here against 64.2 consensus.

Guido: moneyline +125 here against +138 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Alabama by 324% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-106
FPI	+6.5	+209
Sagarin	+7.0	+242
Massey	+2.0	+115
Market (19 books)	+3.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	72.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars -3.0	-102	-106	+1.1%
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	-145	-148	+0.5%
Total	Over 64.5	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido: total 64.5 here against 64.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +138 consensus.

Missouri State Bears at Delaware Blue Hens

CFB Tue 20 Oct, 6:00pm

Delaware -3

Nasty Number Delaware by 3 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Delaware by 3, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore Delaware →

Market

Delaware by 3Guido, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Missouri State and Delaware's last game

FPI

Delaware by 3.5

Sagarin

Delaware by 5

Massey

Delaware by 0.5

Nasty Number

Delaware by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Delaware by 3.5 to Delaware by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52Guido

Model number

52.50.5 pts over the market

Pace number

51.10.9 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

53.11.1 pts over the market

Massey

55.53.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.1, 0.8 pts under the market's 51.9; the model says 52.5, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Delaware spread	Total (over)	Delaware ML	Missouri State ML
Guido	-3 -113	52 -110	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5	52.5 -107 50¢	—	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 -108	52 -110	-153	+130

All 21 books

	Delaware spread	Total (over)	Delaware ML	Missouri State ML
Guido	-3 -113	52 -110	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5	52.5 -107 50¢	—	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -130	51.5 -112	-162	+130
BetAnything	-3 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -108	51.5 -110	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -113	52 -110	-150	+130
betPARX	-2.5 -130	51.5 -112	-162	+130
BetRivers	-2.5 -132	51.5 -113	-162	+130
BetUS	-3 -115	52 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3 -110	52 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -109	52 -112	-150	+126
Courtside	-3 -110	51.5 -113	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -112	51.5 -115	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 48¢ -100 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -110	52 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	51.5 -110	-150	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -130	51.5 -110	-160	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 -109	52 -108	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	52 -110	-151	+123
Pinnacle	-3 -108	52 -110	-153	+130
ReBet	-2.5 -128	51.5 -119	-151	+123

Marked: best for the Delaware side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Delaware):

FanDuel-2.5 -122edge -1.0%
BetMGM-3 -108edge -1.4%
Caesars-3 -109edge -1.6%
Fanatics-3 -110edge -1.9%
DraftKings-3 -112edge -2.3%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Delaware to win · -150 at FanDuel

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Delaware to win):

FanDuel +4-150edge -1.3%
DraftKings-155edge -2.1%
DraftKings Predictions-157 (59¢ on the app)edge -2.3%

Not Nasty

The total · 52

The pace number is 51.1, 0.8 pts under the market's 51.9; the model says 52.5, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens -3.5, only $28 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onDelaware by 324% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Missouri State and Delaware's last game
FPI	-3.5	-162
Sagarin	-5.0	-186
Massey	-0.5	+100
Market (18 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	54.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens -2.5	-122	-117	-1.0%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	-150	-142	-1.3%
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

Guido matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida International Panthers

CFB Tue 20 Oct, 6:00pm

Florida International -10.5

Nasty Number Florida International by 10.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Florida International →

Market

Florida International by 10.5Guido, -104

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Florida International's last game

FPI

Florida International by 11.5

Sagarin

Florida International by 11.5

Massey

Florida International by 6.5

Nasty Number

Florida International by 10.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida International by 10 to Florida International by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46Guido

Model number

46.2on the market

Pace number

45.70.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

36.29.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.41.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.7, 0.2 pts under the market's 45.9; the model says 46.2, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	Middle Tennessee ML
Guido	-10.5 -104	46 -110	-405	+295
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10 -110	46 -111	-412	+309

All 22 books

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	Middle Tennessee ML
Guido	-10.5 -104	46 -110	-405	+295
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -112	45.5 -112	-455	+330
BetAnything	-10.5 -105	46.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -105	45.5 -110	-400	+320
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -104	46 -110	-405	+320
betPARX	-10.5 -112	45.5 -112	-455	+330
BetRivers	-10.5 -113	45.5 -113	-455	+330
BetUS	-10.5 -105	46 -110	—	—
Bovada	-10 -110	46 -110	-415	+310
Caesars	-10.5 -109	45.5 -112	-440	+330
Courtside	-10.5 -110	45.5 -108	-412	+339
DraftKings	-10.5 -110	45.5 -110	-425	+330
Fanatics	-10.5 -105	46 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	45.5 -110	-400	+310
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 +100	46 -108	-405	+320
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	46 -110	-500	+370
Pinnacle	-10 -110	46 -111	-412	+309
Polymarket	—	—	-376	—
ReBet	-10.5 -119	45.5 -116	-500	+370
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Middle Tennessee +10.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee):

DraftKings +1+10.5 -110edge -2.2%
Kalshi +1+10.5 -112edge -2.6%
FanDuel +1+10.5 -115edge -3.4%
Guido+10.5 -116edge -3.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Middle Tennessee to win · +331 (22¢) at Kalshi

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win):

Kalshi +2+331edge -1.6%
Fanatics+325edge -1.9%
BetMGM+320edge -2.2%
FanDuel+310edge -2.8%
Guido+295edge -3.7%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 46

The pace number is 45.7, 0.2 pts under the market's 45.9; the model says 46.2, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida International by 10.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Florida International's last game
FPI	-11.5	-399
Sagarin	-11.5	-401
Massey	-6.5	-227
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-388

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	39.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +10.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+331	+363	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wed Oct 21

1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Sam Houston, New Mexico State at Sam Houston

GameThe call

New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston State Bearkats

CFB Wed 21 Oct, 7:00pm

Sam Houston +3

should be Sam Houston +2.5 · 0.5 pts better than fair at DraftKings · was +2.5

Sniff of Nasty · Sam HoustonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Sam Houston. Market says New Mexico State by 3, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Sam Houston →

Market

New Mexico State by 3Guido, -120

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game

FPI

New Mexico State by 0.52.6 pts our side

Sagarin

New Mexico State by 12 pts our side

Massey

Sam Houston by 13.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

New Mexico State by 2.50.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Sam Houston. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved half a point since it opened, from +2.5 to +3. Better number for anyone taking Sam Houston now: half a more points. The market has moved away from the Nasty Number: it doesn't agree with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45Guido

Model number

51.46.4 pts over the market

Pace number

48.63.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.1on the market

Massey

46.81.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55.5, pace number 48.6, ratings 47.3 against a market total of 50.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM 44.5 -112, Caesars 44.5 -113, FanDuel 44.5 -114.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Sam Houston spread	Total (over)	Sam Houston ML	New Mexico State ML
Guido	+3 -120	45 -115	+120	-140
Pinnacle	+3 -115	45.5 -112	+122	-144

All 22 books

	Sam Houston spread	Total (over)	Sam Houston ML	New Mexico State ML
Guido	+3 -120	45 -115	+120	-140
Bally Bet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -112	+118	-148
BetAnything	+3 -110	44.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+115	-135
BetOnline.ag	+3 -120	45 -115	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -105	44.5 -112	+118	-148
BetRivers	+2.5 -106	44.5 -113	+118	-148
BetUS	+3 -110	45 -115	—	—
Bovada	+3 -115	45.5 -110	+125	-145
Caesars	+3 -117	44.5 -113	+121	-143
Courtside	+3 -113	45.5 -103	+122	-139
DraftKings	+3 -115	45.5 -105	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 +100	45.5 -105	+120	-145
FanDuel	+3.5 -132	44.5 -114	+116	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+120	-145
LowVig.ag	+3 -116	45 -114	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	44.5 -110	+120	-148
Pinnacle	+3 -115	45.5 -112	+122	-144
Polymarket	—	—	+122	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -105	45.5 -109	+118	-151
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	45.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for Sam Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Sam Houston):

DraftKings+3 -115edge +0.7%
FanDuel+3.5 -132edge +0.5%
Fanatics+2.5 +100edge +0.4%
Caesars+3 -117edge +0.3%
Guido+3 -120edge -0.4%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Sam Houston to win · +120 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Sam Houston to win):

Caesars+121edge +0.4%
DraftKings +2+120edge +0.2%
DraftKings Predictions+117 (44¢ on the app)edge -0.4%
FanDuel+116edge -0.7%
BetMGM+115edge -0.9%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 50.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55.5, pace number 48.6, ratings 47.3 against a market total of 50.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM 44.5 -112, Caesars 44.5 -113, FanDuel 44.5 -114.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sam Houston +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico State by 2.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+1.0	+106
Massey	-1.0	-103
Market (19 books)	+3.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +3.0	-115	-118	+0.7%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+120	+119	+0.2%
Total	Over 45.0	-115	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido matches the consensus.

Thu Oct 22

4 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Liberty Flames at Kennesaw State Owls

CFB Thu 22 Oct, 6:00pm

Kennesaw State +11

Nasty Number Liberty by 10 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 11, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 10. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Kennesaw State →

Market

Liberty by 11Guido, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kennesaw State's last game

FPI

Liberty by 8.52.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Liberty by 7.53.7 pts our side

Massey

Liberty by 73.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Liberty by 101.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Kennesaw State. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49Guido

Model number

49.40.4 pts over the market

Pace number

47.51.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

48.20.8 pts under the market

Massey

46.32.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 47.5, 1.3 pts under the market's 48.8; the model says 49.4, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Liberty ML
Guido	+11 -115	49 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5	49.5 -107 50¢	+331 22¢	-430 80¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -111	49 -109	+326	-440

All 23 books

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Liberty ML
Guido	+11 -115	49 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5	49.5 -107 50¢	+331 22¢	-430 80¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -117	47.5 -114	+320	-435
BetAnything	+11.5 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+10.5 -110	48.5 -108	+340	-450
BetOnline.ag	+11 -115	49 -105	—	—
betPARX	+10.5 -117	47.5 -114	+320	-435
BetRivers	+10.5 -118	47.5 -115	+320	-435
BetUS	+11.5 -110	49 -105	—	—
Bovada	+10.5 -115	49 -110	+330	-440
Caesars	+10.5 -109	49 -112	+350	-460
Courtside	+10.5 -110	48.5 -113	+339	-412
DraftKings	+10.5 -110	48.5 -115	+330	-425
DraftKings Predictions	+10.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+10.5 -110	48.5 -115	+340	-450
FanDuel	+10.5 -110	48.5 -105	+340	-450
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -115	47.5 -115	+325	-425
LowVig.ag	+11 -111	49 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+11.5 -110	48.5 -110	+370	-526
Pinnacle	+10.5 -111	49 -109	+326	-440
Polymarket	—	—	+355	-400
ReBet	+11.5 -111	48.5 -116	+360	-526
theScore Bet	+10.5 -110	49.5 -105	+320	-425

Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +11.0 · -115 at Guido

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State):

Caesars+10.5 -109edge +0.3%
FanDuel +3+10.5 -110edge +0.1%
Guido+11 -115edge +0.0%
DraftKings Predictions+10.5 -113 (51¢ on the app)edge -0.5%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kennesaw State to win · +339 at FanDuel

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win):

Caesars+350edge +1.1%
FanDuel +2+340edge +0.6%
Kalshi +1+331edge +0.1%
DraftKings Predictions+317 (22¢ on the app)edge -0.7%

Off the band

The total · 49

The pace number is 47.5, 1.3 pts under the market's 48.8; the model says 49.4, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Kennesaw State, so the number is better for anyone taking Kennesaw State now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +10.5, only $195 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread +11.0 here against +10.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLiberty by 1024% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kennesaw State's last game
FPI	+8.5	+303
Sagarin	+7.5	+262
Massey	+7.0	+253
Market (19 books)	+11.0	+399

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	47.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +11.0	-115	-115	+0.0%
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+339	+329	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Liberty Flames since 10-15 13:36.

Guido: spread +11.0 here against +10.6 consensus.

James Madison Dukes at Appalachian State Mountaineers

CFB Thu 22 Oct, 6:00pm

James Madison -11

Nasty Number James Madison by 11.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 11, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore App State →

Market

James Madison by 11Guido, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and App State's last game

FPI

James Madison by 12.5

Sagarin

James Madison by 13.5

Massey

James Madison by 13.5

Nasty Number

James Madison by 11.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from James Madison by 10 to James Madison by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57Guido

Model number

57.1on the market

Pace number

54.72.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.37.7 pts under the market

Massey

55.91.1 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 58.3, pace number 54.7, ratings 52.6 against a market total of 58). The number is gone. Best now Under 57.5 at DraftKings Predictions: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 58.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	James Madison ML
Guido	+11 -115	57 -110	+340	-450
Kalshi	+11.5 -116 52¢	56.5	+351 21¢	-430 80¢
Pinnacle	+11 -111	56.5 -110	+334	-454

All 23 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	James Madison ML
Guido	+11 -115	57 -110	+340	-450
Kalshi	+11.5 -116 52¢	56.5	+351 21¢	-430 80¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -114	56.5 -110	+330	-455
BetAnything	+11 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+10.5 -108	56.5 -110	+340	-450
BetOnline.ag	+11 -115	57 -110	+350	-450
betPARX	+10.5 -114	56.5 -110	+330	-455
BetRivers	+10.5 -114	56.5 -112	+330	-455
BetUS	+11 -115	57 -110	—	—
Bovada	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+335	-450
Caesars	+10.5 -112	56.5 -112	+330	-440
Courtside	+10.5 -105	56.5 -113	+339	-412
DraftKings	+10.5 -105	56.5 -115	+330	-425
DraftKings Predictions	+10.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57.5 48¢ -100 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+340	-450
FanDuel	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+340	-450
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -115	56.5 -110	+325	-450
LowVig.ag	+11 -111	57 -108	+350	-450
MyBookie.ag	+11 -110	56.5 -110	+330	-450
Pinnacle	+11 -111	56.5 -110	+334	-454
Polymarket	+10.5 -104	—	+355	-400
ReBet	+11.5 -116	56.5 -114	+320	-461
theScore Bet	+10.5 -105	57.5 -105	+320	-425

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -11.0 · -105 at Guido

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison):

Guido-11 -105edge -0.3%
FanDuel +2-10.5 -110edge -0.5%
Kalshi-11.5 -103 (49¢)edge -0.9%
Caesars-10.5 -112edge -1.0%
DraftKings-10.5 -115edge -1.6%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -450 at FanDuel

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (James Madison to win):

DraftKings +1-425edge -1.2%
Caesars-440edge -1.7%
FanDuel +4-450 (80¢ on the app)edge -2.0%

Off the band

Under 58.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 56°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $1 available; James Madison Dukes -10.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus.

Guido: moneyline +355 here against +404 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 11.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and App State's last game
FPI	+12.5	+413
Sagarin	+13.5	+448
Massey	+13.5	+439
Market (19 books)	+11.0	+355

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -11.0	-105	-104	-0.3%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-450	-395	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

Guido: total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +404 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers

CFB Thu 22 Oct, 6:30pm

Memphis -10.5

Nasty Number Memphis by 10.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more East Carolina than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 10.5Guido, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen East Carolina and Memphis's last game

FPI

Memphis by 11

Sagarin

Memphis by 13

Massey

Memphis by 8

Nasty Number

Memphis by 10.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Memphis by 9.5 to Memphis by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55Guido

Model number

55.90.9 pts over the market

Pace number

52.52.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

53.61.4 pts under the market

Massey

54.8on the market

The pace number is 52.5, 1.7 pts under the market's 54.2; the model says 55.9, 1.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	East Carolina ML
Guido	-10.5 -110	55 -110	-425	+315
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -111	54 -111	-439	+326

All 22 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	East Carolina ML
Guido	-10.5 -110	55 -110	-425	+315
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -122	53.5 -113	-455	+330
BetAnything	-10.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -108	54.5 -110	-425	+333
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	55 -110	-425	+334
betPARX	-9.5 -122	53.5 -113	-455	+330
BetRivers	-9.5 -122	53.5 -114	-455	+330
BetUS	-10.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
Bovada	-10.5 -115	54 -110	-440	+330
Caesars	-10.5 -108	54.5 -112	-400	+305
Courtside	-10.5 -108	54.5 -113	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -108	54.5 -115	-410	+320
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	54.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	54.5 -110	-420	+320
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -120	53.5 -110	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -106	55 -108	-425	+334
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	55 -110	-441	+330
Pinnacle	-10.5 -111	54 -111	-439	+326
ReBet	-10.5 -116	54.5 -119	-450	+320
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	54.5 -115	-425	+320

Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina +10.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (East Carolina):

FanDuel +3+10.5 -110edge -2.3%
DraftKings +2+10.5 -112 (51¢ on the app)edge -2.8%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · +333 at BetMGM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (East Carolina to win):

BetMGM +1+333edge -1.5%
Fanatics+325edge -2.0%
FanDuel +1+320edge -2.2%
Guido+315edge -2.5%
Caesars+305edge -3.1%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 54

The pace number is 52.5, 1.7 pts under the market's 54.2; the model says 55.9, 1.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Kalshi thin: Memphis Tigers -10.5, only $181 available; East Carolina Pirates +10.5, only $1 available; Memphis Tigers ML, only $223 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 10.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen East Carolina and Memphis's last game
FPI	-11.0	-373
Sagarin	-13.0	-435
Massey	-8.0	-287
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-407

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates +10.5	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	+333	+364	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

Guido: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

NFL Thu 22 Oct, 7:15pm

Bears -3

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 3Guido, -113

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game

Massey

hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50Guido

Model number

50on the market

Pace number

463.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

40.89.1 pts under the market

FPI

47.22.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 46, 3.8 pts under the market's 49.9; the model says 50, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Patriots ML
Guido	-3 -113	50	-163	+133
Kalshi	-3.5 +109 46¢	50.5 -103 49¢	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-3 -107	50 -108	-163	+143

All 26 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Patriots ML
Guido	-3 -113	50	-163	+133
Kalshi	-3.5 +109 46¢	50.5 -103 49¢	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -106	49.5 -110	-150	+123
BetAnything	-3 -105	—	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -102	50 -108	-160	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -113	50 -110	-163	+143
betPARX	-3 -106	49.5 -110	-150	+123
BetRivers	-3 -106	49.5 -110	-150	+123
BetUS	-3 -115	—	—	—
Bovada	-3 -110	50 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3 -106	50 -115	-157	+132
Courtside	-2.5 -118	49.5 -108	-152	+133
DraftKings	-2.5 -120	49.5 -110	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -110	50 -110	-165	+135
FanDuel	-3 -104	49.5 -115	-148	+126
Fliff	-2.5 -130	49.5 -115	-160	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -105	50 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -105	50 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -105	50 -110	-150	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 -108	50 -107	-163	+143
MyBookie.ag	—	49.5 -110	-162	+127
Pinnacle	-3 -107	50 -108	-163	+143
Polymarket	-3.5 +117	50.5 +104	-156	+144
ReBet	-3.5 +100	49.5 -120	-156	+132
theScore Bet	-3 +100	49.5 -115	-145	+125

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 50

The pace number is 46, 3.8 pts under the market's 49.9; the model says 50, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Bears).

Backup QB out: Case Keenum (Bears), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Kyle Monangai (RB, Bears), Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB, Bears), Channing Canada (CB, Patriots) and 1 more.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game
Massey	hasn't seen New England Patriots and Chicago Bears's last game
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Chicago Bears since 10-14 19:18; total has moved up 0.8.

Guido matches the consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Fri Oct 23

5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · NC State, NC State at Stanford

GameThe call

NC State Wolfpack at Stanford Cardinal

CFB Fri 23 Oct, 9:30pm

NC State -7

should be NC State -7.5 · 0.5 pts better than fair at Fanatics · was -7.5

Sniff of Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says NC State by 7, the Nasty Number says NC State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more NC State than the bookmore Stanford →

Market

NC State by 7Guido, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Stanford's last game

FPI

NC State by 92 pts our side

Sagarin

NC State by 11.54.4 pts our side

Massey

NC State by 9.52.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

NC State by 7.50.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean NC State. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved half a point since it opened, from -7.5 to -7. Better number for anyone laying NC State now: half a points less to lay. The market has moved away from the Nasty Number: it doesn't agree with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55Guido

Model number

55.90.9 pts over the market

Pace number

54.60.4 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.64.6 pts over the market

Massey

59.14.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.6, 0.8 pts under the market's 55.5; the model says 55.9, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	NC State ML
Guido	+7 -105	55 -110	+220	-280
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	55.5	+229 29¢	—
Pinnacle	+7 -107	55.5 -107	+223	-278

All 22 books

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	NC State ML
Guido	+7 -105	55 -110	+220	-280
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	55.5	+229 29¢	—
Bally Bet	+7.5 -109	55.5 -115	+265	-345
BetAnything	+7 -110	56 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7 -108	55.5 -108	+230	-285
BetOnline.ag	+7 -105	55 -110	+226	-275
betPARX	+7.5 -109	55.5 -115	+265	-345
BetRivers	+7.5 -110	55.5 -117	+265	-360
BetUS	+7 -105	55 -110	—	—
Bovada	+7 -110	55.5 -105	+225	-275
Caesars	+7 -106	55.5 -112	+240	-310
Courtside	+7 -106	55.5 -106	+246	-290
DraftKings	+7 -108	55.5 -108	+240	-298
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 57¢ -144 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	55.5 -105	+230	-285
FanDuel	+7.5 -122	55.5 -110	+245	-310
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -110	55.5 -115	+260	-350
LowVig.ag	+7 -101	55 -108	+226	-275
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	55.5 -110	+228	-295
Pinnacle	+7 -107	55.5 -107	+223	-278
ReBet	+7.5 -119	55.5 -114	+218	-310
theScore Bet	+6.5 +100	55.5 -110	+240	-290

Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State -7.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (NC State):

Fanatics +1-7 -110edge +1.3%
DraftKings-7 -112edge +0.8%
Kalshi +1-7.5 +101edge +0.5%
Caesars-7 -114edge +0.4%
Guido-7 -115edge +0.2%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

NC State to win · -280 at Guido

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (NC State to win):

Guido-280edge +0.0%
Fanatics +1-285edge -0.3%
DraftKings-298edge -1.2%
FanDuel +1-310edge -1.9%
DraftKings Predictions-355 (76¢ on the app)edge -4.3%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 55.5

The pace number is 54.6, 0.8 pts under the market's 55.5; the model says 55.9, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State -7.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from NC State, so the number is better for anyone taking NC State now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $2 available; NC State Wolfpack ML, only $72 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

Guido: moneyline +230 here against +265 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNC State by 7.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Stanford's last game
FPI	+9.0	+308
Sagarin	+11.5	+392
Massey	+9.5	+314
Market (19 books)	+7.0	+230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	NC State Wolfpack -7.0	-110	-116	+1.3%
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	-280	-280	+0.0%
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Stanford Cardinal since 10-18 06:04.

Guido: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus; moneyline +230 here against +265 consensus.

Air Force Falcons at Wyoming Cowboys

CFB Fri 23 Oct, 8:00pm

Air Force to win

our data says 67 in 100 · -200

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Wyoming →

Market

Air Force by 6Guido, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Air Force and Wyoming's last game

FPI

Air Force by 103.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Air Force by 82 pts our side

Massey

Air Force by 5.50.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

Air Force by 60.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Air Force. Massey at Air Force by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 2 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 2 points since it opened, from -7 to -5. Better number for anyone laying Air Force now: 2 points less to lay. The market has moved away from the Nasty Number: it doesn't agree with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5Guido

Model number

44.70.8 pts under the market

Pace number

46.61.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

38.17.4 pts under the market

Massey

414.5 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.6, 1.2 pts over the market's 45.4; the model says 44.7, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Air Force ML
Guido	+6 -113	45.5 -110	+170	-200
Kalshi	—	45.5 -116 52¢	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -111	45.5 -111	+173	-209

All 23 books

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Air Force ML
Guido	+6 -113	45.5 -110	+170	-200
Kalshi	—	45.5 -116 52¢	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -125	44.5 -110	+165	-210
BetAnything	+6 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+5 -108	45.5 -105	+165	-210
BetOnline.ag	+6 -113	45.5 -110	+174	-200
betPARX	+5.5 -125	44.5 -110	+165	-210
BetRivers	+5.5 -125	44.5 -112	+165	-210
BetUS	+6 -115	45.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+5 -105	45.5 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+5.5 -113	45.5 -109	+177	-213
Courtside	+5.5 -110	45.5 +100	+174	-200
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	45.5 -102	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+175	-215
FanDuel	+5.5 -114	45.5 -106	+162	-196
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -125	44.5 -110	+165	-210
LowVig.ag	+6 -109	45.5 -108	+174	-200
MyBookie.ag	+6 -110	45 -110	+164	-204
Pinnacle	+5.5 -111	45.5 -111	+173	-209
Polymarket	—	—	—	-194
ReBet	+6.5 -116	44.5 -119	+157	-214
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	45.5 -105	+175	-210

Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force -5.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Air Force):

BetMGM-5 -110edge +0.1%
FanDuel-5.5 -106edge +0.1%
Caesars-5.5 -107edge -0.1%
DraftKings +1-5.5 -110edge -0.8%
Guido-6 -107edge -1.3%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · -200 at Guido

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Air Force to win):

FanDuel-196edge +1.1%
Guido-200edge +0.6%
DraftKings-205edge +0.1%
BetMGM-210edge -0.5%
Caesars-213edge -0.8%
3 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 45.5

The pace number is 46.6, 1.2 pts over the market's 45.4; the model says 44.7, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Air Force to win · -200 at Guido. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 47°F, 36% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Air Force, so the number is better for anyone taking Air Force now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +5.5, only $411 available; Air Force Falcons -5.5, only $30 available; Under 45.5, only $403 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 624% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Air Force and Wyoming's last game
FPI	+10.0	+328
Sagarin	+8.0	+288
Massey	+5.5	+191
Market (19 books)	+6.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	37.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	-200	-206	+0.6%
Spread	Air Force Falcons -5.0	-110	-111	+0.1%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 10-18 06:04; total has moved up 1.1.

Guido: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers

CFB Fri 23 Oct, 6:00pm

Virginia -1.5

Nasty Number Virginia by 1 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 1.5Guido, -108

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Duke and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 1

Sagarin

Virginia by 2.5

Massey

Duke by 1

Nasty Number

Virginia by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5Guido

Model number

50.43.9 pts over the market

Pace number

49.12.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.45.9 pts over the market

Massey

50.43.9 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 52, pace number 49.1 against a market total of 48.5, edge +1.5%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -127, FanDuel 46.5 -110, Caesars 46.5 -114.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Duke ML
Guido	-1.5 -108	46.5 -120	-118	-102
Kalshi	—	—	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Pinnacle	-1 -109	47 -109	-114	-102

All 22 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Duke ML
Guido	-1.5 -108	46.5 -120	-118	-102
Kalshi	—	—	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	-2 -105	48.5 +104	-124	+100
BetAnything	-1 -110	47 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	46.5 -115	-118	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -108	46.5 -120	-118	-102
betPARX	-2 -105	48.5 +104	-124	+100
BetRivers	-2 -106	48.5 +102	-124	+100
BetUS	-1 -110	46.5 -120	—	—
Bovada	-1 -110	47 -110	-115	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -113	46.5 -114	-124	+105
Courtside	-1.5 -110	46.5 -113	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	46.5 -115	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 56¢ -138 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics	-1.5 -105	47 -110	-120	+100
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	46.5 -110	-125	+104
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 +100	48.5 +105	-125	+100
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -104	46.5 -119	-118	-102
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	47 -110	-124	+101
Pinnacle	-1 -109	47 -109	-114	-102
ReBet	-1.5 -114	46.5 -119	-129	-103
theScore Bet	-1.5 -110	47.5 -105	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke +2.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Duke):

FanDuel+2.5 -115edge -0.6%
Caesars+1.5 -107edge -0.9%
BetMGM+1.5 -108edge -1.1%
DraftKings+1.5 -110edge -1.6%
Guido+1.5 -112edge -2.0%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Duke to win · +105 at Caesars

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Duke to win):

Caesars+105edge -0.6%
FanDuel+104edge -0.9%
DraftKings+102edge -1.4%
Fanatics +1+100edge -1.8%
Guido-102edge -2.3%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 48.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 52, pace number 49.1 against a market total of 48.5, edge +1.5%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -127, FanDuel 46.5 -110, Caesars 46.5 -114.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 56°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Duke).

Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers -1.5, only $63 available; Duke Blue Devils +1.5, only $10 available; Over 47.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 46.5 here against 47.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 124% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Duke and Virginia's last game
FPI	-1.0	-104
Sagarin	-2.5	-123
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (19 books)	-1.5	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	51.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils +2.5	-115	-112	-0.6%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	+105	+108	-0.6%
Total	Over 46.5	-120	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Duke Blue Devils since 10-17 23:42; total has moved down 1.4.

Guido: total 46.5 here against 47.1 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies

CFB Fri 23 Oct, 6:00pm

UConn -16.5

Nasty Number UConn by 16.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UConn by 16.5, the Nasty Number says UConn by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore UConn →

Market

UConn by 16.5Guido, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game

FPI

UConn by 10.5

Sagarin

UConn by 17.5

Massey

UConn by 20.5

Nasty Number

UConn by 16.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5Guido

Model number

50.40.9 pts over the market

Pace number

544.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.66.1 pts over the market

Massey

56.36.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.6, pace number 54, ratings 56 against a market total of 48). The number is gone. Best now Over 48.5 at Caesars: the total has moved 3 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 45.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Massachusetts ML
Guido	-16.5 -105	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	49.5	-719 87¢	+573 14¢
Pinnacle	-16 -108	49 -110	-797	+514

All 23 books

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Massachusetts ML
Guido	-16.5 -105	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	49.5	-719 87¢	+573 14¢
Bally Bet	-16.5 -109	48.5 -115	-835	+540
BetAnything	-16 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-16 -108	48.5 -112	-750	+550
BetOnline.ag	-16.5 -105	49.5 -105	-795	+558
betPARX	-16.5 -109	48.5 -115	-835	+540
BetRivers	-16.5 -110	48.5 -117	-910	+540
BetUS	-16.5 -105	49.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	-16 -110	49 -110	-800	+525
Caesars	-15.5 -113	48.5 -110	-850	+550
Courtside	-15.5 -108	48.5 -113	-761	+572
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	48.5 -115	-800	+550
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	90¢ -1150 all-in	17¢ +426 all-in
Fanatics	-16 -110	49 -110	-750	+515
FanDuel	-15.5 -115	48.5 -115	-820	+550
Hard Rock Bet	-16.5 -110	48.5 -115	-850	+550
LowVig.ag	-16.5 -101	49.5 -103	-795	+558
MyBookie.ag	—	49 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-16 -108	49 -110	-797	+514
Polymarket	—	—	-669	—
ReBet	-16.5 -119	48.5 -116	-1000	+520
theScore Bet	-15.5 -110	49.5 -105	-800	+500

Marked: best for the UConn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts +16.5 · -115 at Guido

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Massachusetts):

FanDuel+15.5 -105edge -2.6%
Fanatics +1+16 -110edge -3.0%
Caesars+15.5 -107edge -3.0%
Guido+16.5 -115edge -3.4%
DraftKings+15.5 -110edge -3.7%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Massachusetts to win · +545 at FanDuel

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 16, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win):

Kalshi+573 (14¢)edge -0.5%
FanDuel +3+550edge -1.0%
Fanatics+515edge -1.9%
DraftKings Predictions+426 (17¢ on the app)edge -4.6%

Off the band

Over 45.5 · -150 at DraftKings Predictions

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 48°F.

Kalshi thin: UConn Huskies -15.5, only $97 available; UMass Minutemen +15.5, only $339 available; Over 49.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -16.5 here against -16.0 consensus.

Guido: total 49.5 here against 48.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUConn by 16.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game
FPI	-10.5	-360
Sagarin	-17.5	-722
Massey	-20.5	-927
Market (19 books)	-16.5	-705

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UMass Minutemen +16.5	-115	-100	-3.4%
Moneyline	UMass Minutemen ML	+545	+595	priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-105	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

Guido: spread -16.5 here against -16.0 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Army Black Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

CFB Fri 23 Oct, 7:30pm

Army +1.5

Nasty Number a pick'em · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1.5, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Tulsa →

Market

Tulsa by 1.5Guido, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Army and Tulsa's last game

FPI

Army by 0.5

Sagarin

Army by 2.5

Massey

Army by 5

Nasty Number

a pick'em1.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Army by 1.5 to Tulsa by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5Guido

Model number

54.40.9 pts over the market

Pace number

51.71.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

53.6on the market

Massey

50.33.2 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.7, 1.9 pts under the market's 53.6; the model says 54.4, 0.9 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tulsa spread	Total (over)	Tulsa ML	Army ML
Guido	-1.5 -105	53.5 -110	-115	-105
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -121 53¢	-112 51¢	-103 49¢
Pinnacle	-1 -106	54 -106	-110	-106

All 23 books

	Tulsa spread	Total (over)	Tulsa ML	Army ML
Guido	-1.5 -105	53.5 -110	-115	-105
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -121 53¢	-112 51¢	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	+1 -107	52.5 -112	-103	-121
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1 -108	53.5 -108	-110	-108
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -105	53.5 -110	-115	-105
betPARX	+1 -107	52.5 -112	-103	-121
BetRivers	+1 -108	52.5 -113	-103	-121
BetUS	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-1 -110	53.5 -115	-115	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -107	51.5 -112	-109	-109
Courtside	-1.5 -108	52.5 -116	-110	-106
DraftKings	-1.5 -108	53.5 -105	-112	-108
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 57¢ -144 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fanatics	-1 -110	53.5 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	-1.5 -104	53.5 -110	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	—	52.5 -110	+100	-120
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -101	53.5 -108	-115	-105
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	-122	+100
Pinnacle	-1 -106	54 -106	-110	-106
Polymarket	—	—	-113	—
ReBet	-0.5 -116	52.5 -116	-116	-114
theScore Bet	+1.5 -115	53.5 -105	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army +1.5 · -115 at Guido

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Army):

DraftKings+1.5 -112edge -0.4%
Caesars+1.5 -114edge -0.9%
Guido+1.5 -115edge -1.1%
Fanatics +1+1 -110edge -1.1%
FanDuel+1.5 -118edge -1.7%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Army to win · -105 at Fanatics

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Army to win):

Kalshi-103 (49¢)edge -0.8%
Fanatics +1-105edge -1.2%
DraftKings +1-108edge -1.9%
Caesars-109edge -2.2%
FanDuel-110edge -2.4%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 53.5

The pace number is 51.7, 1.9 pts under the market's 53.6; the model says 54.4, 0.9 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Tulsa).

Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights +1.5, only $31 available; Army Black Knights ML, only $150 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -1.5 here against -0.9 consensus.

Guido: moneyline -110 here against -101 consensus.

Full detail

We settle ona pick'em32% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Army and Tulsa's last game
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	+2.5	+123
Massey	+5.0	+189
Market (19 books)	-1.5	-110

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Army Black Knights +1.5	-115	-110	-1.1%
Moneyline	Army Black Knights ML	-105	+100	-1.2%
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-17 23:42; total has moved up 2.1.

Guido: spread -1.5 here against -0.9 consensus; moneyline -110 here against -101 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sat Oct 24

44 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Michigan State, Michigan State at UCLA

GameThe call

Michigan State Spartans at UCLA Bruins

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Michigan State +14.5Better number · 2 pts since open

should be Michigan State +13.5 · 1 pt better than fair at FanDuel · was +13

Sniff of Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says UCLA by 14, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 13.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 14

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Michigan State and UCLA's last game

FPI

UCLA by 122.2 pts our side

Sagarin

UCLA by 14.50.7 pts against us

Massey

UCLA by 11.52.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

UCLA by 13.50.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Michigan State. Sagarin at UCLA by 14.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 2 points since it opened, from +12.5 to +14.5. Better number for anyone taking Michigan State now: 2 more points. The market has moved away from the Nasty Number: it doesn't agree with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

49.63.6 pts over the market

Pace number

50.54.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.35.3 pts over the market

Massey

50.94.9 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.7, pace number 50.5, ratings 51.1 against a market total of 47.5, edge +1.3%). Still there: DraftKings 45.5 -105, FanDuel 45.5 -105, BetMGM 45.5 -105.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Michigan State ML
Kalshi	-14.5	—	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -110	46 -101	-649	+441

All 22 books

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Michigan State ML
Kalshi	-14.5	—	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -113	47.5 +107	-625	+430
BetAnything	-14 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-14 -112	45.5 -105	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14 -115	45.5 -105	—	—
betPARX	-13.5 -113	47.5 +107	-625	+430
BetRivers	-13.5 -113	47.5 +106	-625	+430
BetUS	-14 -110	45 -110	—	—
Bovada	-14 -110	45.5 -110	-650	+450
Caesars	-14 -112	45.5 -108	-675	+475
Courtside	-14 -110	45.5 -103	-576	+455
DraftKings	-14 -112	45.5 -105	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 56¢ -138 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-14 -110	45.5 -105	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	45.5 -105	-800	+540
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	47.5 +105	-650	+425
LowVig.ag	-14 -111	45.5 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	45.5 -110	-752	+500
Pinnacle	-14 -110	46 -101	-649	+441
Polymarket	—	—	-567	—
ReBet	-14.5 -109	45.5 -109	-800	+460
theScore Bet	-14.5 -110	45.5 -105	-800	+500

Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State):

FanDuel+14.5 -110edge +1.7%
BetMGM+14 -105edge +0.9%
DraftKings +1+14 -108edge +0.2%
Fanatics+14 -110edge -0.2%
Kalshi+14.5 -126 (54¢)edge -1.6%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +540 at FanDuel

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 16, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Michigan State to win):

FanDuel+540edge +2.8%
BetMGM+500edge +1.8%
Caesars +1+475edge +1.1%
Kalshi+456 (17¢)edge +0.5%
DraftKings+440edge -0.1%
1 more at worse prices

Off the band

Over 47.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Michigan State, so the number is better for anyone taking Michigan State now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins -14.5, only $471 available; Over 45.5, only $101 available; Under 45.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 13.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Michigan State and UCLA's last game
FPI	-12.0	-403
Sagarin	-14.5	-534
Massey	-11.5	-388
Market (19 books)	-14.0	-581

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +14.5	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+540	+442	priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-18 06:04; total has moved down 1.6.

UTSA Roadrunners at Tulane Green Wave

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 7:00pm

Tulane +2

Nasty Number UTSA by 1 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 2, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 1. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Tulane →

Market

UTSA by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UTSA and Tulane's last game

FPI

Tulane by 3.5

Sagarin

Tulane by 2

Massey

Tulane by 4

Nasty Number

UTSA by 11.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

Model number

520.4 pts over the market

Pace number

510.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.93.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.31.2 pts under the market

The pace number is 51, 0.6 pts under the market's 51.5; the model says 52, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	UTSA ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	—	+105 47¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -113	51.5 -110	+107	-126

All 21 books

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	UTSA ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	—	+105 47¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -106	51.5 -109	+115	-141
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2 -108	51.5 -110	+110	-135
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -106	51.5 -109	+115	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -107	51.5 -110	+115	-141
BetUS	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+2 -110	51.5 -110	+105	-125
Caesars	+1.5 -106	51.5 -110	+118	-139
Courtside	+1.5 -105	51.5 -108	+116	-132
DraftKings	+1.5 -105	51.5 -110	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 54¢ -127 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+2 -110	51.5 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	51.5 -118	+114	-137
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -106	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	51.5 -110	+114	-140
Pinnacle	+2.5 -113	51.5 -110	+107	-126
ReBet	+2.5 -116	51.5 -116	+110	-146
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	51.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +2.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulane):

BetMGM+2 -108edge +0.9%
DraftKings +1+1.5 -105edge +0.5%
Fanatics+2 -110edge +0.4%
Caesars+1.5 -106edge +0.3%
Kalshi+1.5 -112 (51¢)edge -1.0%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · +114 at DraftKings

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Tulane to win):

Caesars+118edge +3.2%
DraftKings +1+114edge +2.3%
BetMGM +1+110edge +1.5%
Kalshi+105 (47¢)edge +0.4%
DraftKings Predictions-104 (49¢ on the app)edge -1.9%

Not Nasty

The total · 51.5

The pace number is 51, 0.6 pts under the market's 51.5; the model says 52, 0.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +2.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Tulane). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $95 available; Under 51.5, only $25 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 124% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UTSA and Tulane's last game
FPI	-3.5	-163
Sagarin	-2.0	-114
Massey	-4.0	-172
Market (19 books)	+2.0	+120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+114	+104	+2.3%
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +2.0	-110	-112	+0.5%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-18 11:55; total has moved up 1.0.

Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

Texas -3.5

Nasty Number Texas by 4 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ole Miss and Texas's last game

FPI

Texas by 7.5

Sagarin

Texas by 5.5

Massey

Texas by 4

Nasty Number

Texas by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

511.2 pts under the market

Pace number

53.10.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.57.2 pts over the market

Massey

54.62.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.1, 0.9 pts over the market's 52.2; the model says 51, 1.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	-3.5	52.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -103	52 -109	-162	+137

All 21 books

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	-3.5	52.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -106	52.5 -110	-165	+135
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	52.5 -108	-165	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -112	52.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3.5 -106	52.5 -110	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3.5 -107	52.5 -112	-167	+135
BetUS	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3.5 -105	52 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-3.5 -104	52.5 -108	-159	+135
Courtside	-3.5 -108	52.5 -106	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	52.5 -108	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 56¢ -138 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -105	52 -110	-160	+135
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-164	+136
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	52.5 -110	-165	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-181	+146
Pinnacle	-3.5 -103	52 -109	-162	+137
Polymarket	—	—	-138	+133
ReBet	-3.5 -111	52.5 -111	-189	+140
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	52.5 -110	-150	+130

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -3.5 · -104 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas):

Caesars-3.5 -104edge -0.2%
Fanatics-3.5 -105edge -0.4%
DraftKings-3.5 -108edge -1.1%
FanDuel +1-3.5 -110edge -1.6%
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.3%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -148 (58¢) at Kalshi

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Texas to win):

Kalshi-148 (58¢)edge +2.8%
Caesars +1-159edge +1.1%
DraftKings-162edge +0.6%
FanDuel +1-164edge +0.3%
DraftKings Predictions-185 (63¢ on the app)edge -2.5%

Not Nasty

The total · 52

The pace number is 53.1, 0.9 pts over the market's 52.2; the model says 51, 1.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Ole Miss).

Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns -3.5, only $68 available; Over 52.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 416% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ole Miss and Texas's last game
FPI	-7.5	-278
Sagarin	-5.5	-191
Massey	-4.0	-167
Market (18 books)	-3.5	-151

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	57.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-148	-166	+2.8%
Spread	Texas Longhorns -3.5	-104	-103	-0.2%
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 1.3.

San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 5:30pm

San Diego State -2.5

Nasty Number San Diego State by 2.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says San Diego State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Colorado State →

Market

San Diego State by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San Diego State and Colorado State's last game

FPI

San Diego State by 0.5

Sagarin

San Diego State by 1

Massey

San Diego State by 2.5

Nasty Number

San Diego State by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5

Model number

58.42.2 pts under the market

Pace number

59.90.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.90.8 pts under the market

Massey

62.21.6 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 59, pace number 59.9 against a market total of 61.5, edge +0.3%). The number is gone. Best now Under 60.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 61.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61.5 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	San Diego State ML
Kalshi	+2.5	—	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	60.5 -113	+113	-133

All 21 books

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	San Diego State ML
Kalshi	+2.5	—	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -104	61.5 -113	+120	-150
BetAnything	+2.5 -105	61 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	61 -105	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -104	61.5 -113	+120	-150
BetRivers	+2.5 -105	61.5 -113	+120	-150
BetUS	+2.5 -110	61 -105	—	—
Bovada	+2.5 -110	60.5 -115	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -105	60.5 -112	+123	-145
Courtside	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	60.5 -112	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	59.5 -114	+126	-152
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -101	61 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	61 -110	+122	-150
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	60.5 -113	+113	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -105	60.5 -119	+117	-156
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado State):

FanDuel +4+2.5 -105edge -0.8%
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.6%

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +126 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Colorado State to win):

FanDuel+126edge +1.5%
Caesars+123edge +0.9%
DraftKings +1+120edge +0.3%
Fanatics+115edge -0.8%
Kalshi+114 (45¢)edge -1.1%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Under 61.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 60°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward San Diego State).

Kalshi thin: Colorado State Rams +2.5, only $50 available; Over 60.5, only $57 available; Under 60.5, only $291 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSan Diego State by 2.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San Diego State and Colorado State's last game
FPI	+0.5	+102
Sagarin	+1.0	+108
Massey	+2.5	+120
Market (19 books)	+2.5	+128

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	61.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+126	+119	+1.5%
Spread	Colorado State Rams +2.5	-105	-102	-0.8%
Total	Over 60.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 10-18 06:04; total has moved up 1.1.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Iowa -6.5

should be Iowa -7 · 0.5 pts better than fair at Caesars · was -4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa by 7, the Nasty Number says Iowa by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Minnesota →

Market

Iowa by 7

The Four

SP+

Iowa by 60.8 pts against us

FPI

Iowa by 103 pts our side

Sagarin

Iowa by 7.50.8 pts our side

Massey

Iowa by 92.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Iowa by 70.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Iowa. SP+ at Iowa by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

38.62.4 pts under the market

Pace number

47.56.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

39.71.3 pts under the market

Massey

43.62.6 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 39.9, pace number 47.5 against a market total of 42.5). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 39.5 -144, DraftKings 40.5 -120, Fanatics 41 -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+208 31¢	—
Pinnacle	+7 -108	41 -111	+219	-272

All 22 books

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+208 31¢	—
Bally Bet	+6.5 -107	40.5 -112	+215	-275
BetAnything	+6.5 -105	41 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+6.5 -105	41.5 -102	+210	-275
BetOnline.ag	+7 -118	41 -110	—	—
betPARX	+6.5 -107	40.5 -112	+215	-275
BetRivers	+6.5 -108	40.5 -113	+210	-275
BetUS	+7 -120	41 -110	—	—
Bovada	+7 -110	41 -110	+220	-270
Caesars	+6.5 -107	41 -112	+205	-250
Courtside	+6.5 -105	41.5 -103	+210	-244
DraftKings	+6.5 -105	40.5 -120	+205	-250
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	39.5 59¢ -157 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	41 -110	+215	-265
FanDuel	+6.5 -105	41.5 -105	+210	-260
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	40.5 -110	+220	-275
LowVig.ag	+7 -114	41 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+6.5 -110	—	+228	-290
Pinnacle	+7 -108	41 -111	+219	-272
Polymarket	—	—	—	-257
ReBet	+6.5 -105	40.5 -125	+216	-310
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	41.5 -105	+210	-250

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa -6.5 · -114 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa):

Caesars-6.5 -114edge +1.2%
FanDuel +2-6.5 -115edge +1.0%
Fanatics-7 -105edge +0.2%
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -2.5%
Kalshi-7.5 -107 (50¢)edge -3.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · -250 at DraftKings

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Iowa to win):

DraftKings +1-250edge +0.5%
FanDuel-260edge -0.3%
Fanatics-265edge -0.7%
BetMGM-275edge -1.4%
DraftKings Predictions-300 (73¢ on the app)edge -3.1%

Not Nasty

Over 42.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 39.9, pace number 47.5 against a market total of 42.5). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 39.5 -144, DraftKings 40.5 -120, Fanatics 41 -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa -6.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Iowa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and a worse number for anyone taking Iowa now: 2.3 points more to lay than at the open.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5, only $54 available; Over 41.5, only $95 available; Under 41.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onIowa by 724% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.0	+202
FPI	+10.0	+329
Sagarin	+7.5	+279
Massey	+9.0	+310
Market (19 books)	+7.0	+247

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5	-114	-119	+1.2%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-250	-256	+0.5%
Total	Over 41.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 10-17 23:42; total has moved down 1.5.

Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Tennessee +2

Nasty Number South Carolina by 1 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 1, but the market has moved 3.7 points away from Tennessee since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore South Carolina →

Market

South Carolina by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tennessee's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 35.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Tennessee by 35 pts our side

Massey

Tennessee by 4.56.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Carolina by 11.3 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 3 pts

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 3 points since it opened, from -1 to +2. Better number for anyone taking Tennessee now: 3 points of number. The market has come toward the Nasty Number: it agrees with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

Model number

49.41.1 pts under the market

Pace number

543.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

57.57 pts over the market

Massey

56.76.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 54, 3.5 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 49.4, 1.1 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Tennessee ML
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-107 50¢
Pinnacle	-2 -112	50.5 -117	-112	-104

All 22 books

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Tennessee ML
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-107 50¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -110	50.5 -115	-107	-114
BetAnything	-2 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-2 -110	50.5 -110	-112	-105
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	50 -115	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -110	50.5 -115	-107	-114
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	50.5 -117	-108	-115
BetUS	-2.5 -110	50 -115	—	—
Bovada	-2.5 -110	51 -110	-115	-105
Caesars	-2.5 -109	50.5 -112	-109	-108
Courtside	-2.5 -108	50.5 -108	-110	-106
DraftKings	-2.5 -108	50.5 -110	-112	-108
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 55¢ -132 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	50.5 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	-2.5 -106	50.5 -108	-111	-108
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	50.5 -115	-105	-115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -106	50 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	50.5 -110	-106	-115
Pinnacle	-2 -112	50.5 -117	-112	-104
Polymarket	-2.5	—	-113	—
ReBet	-1.5 -116	50.5 -114	-115	-115
theScore Bet	-2.5 -110	50.5 -110	-115	-105

Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee +2.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tennessee):

Fanatics +1+2.5 -110edge +1.4%
DraftKings+2.5 -112edge +0.9%
BetMGM+2 -108edge +0.9%
FanDuel+2.5 -114edge +0.5%
Kalshi+2.5 -116 (52¢)edge +0.1%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Tennessee to win · -108 (50¢) at Kalshi

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Tennessee to win):

Fanatics +1-105edge -2.2%
Kalshi +3-107edge -2.7%
DraftKings Predictions-108 (50¢ on the app)edge -3.0%

Not Nasty

The total · 50.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -2.0. The market has moved 3.7 away from Tennessee, so the number is better for anyone taking Tennessee now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $1 available; South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5, only $121 available; Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Carolina by 124% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tennessee's last game
FPI	+3.0	+149
Sagarin	+3.0	+132
Massey	+4.5	+178
Market (19 books)	-2.0	-102

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	56.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Volunteers +2.0	-110	-112	+0.4%
Moneyline	Tennessee Volunteers ML	-108	+104	-2.9%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-16 14:37; total has moved down 1.0.

North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 9:00pm

New Mexico to win

our data says 66 in 100 · -180

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 4, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 5.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore New Mexico →

Market

New Mexico by 4

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Dakota State and New Mexico's last game

FPI

New Mexico by 10.56.5 pts our side

Sagarin

New Mexico by 94.8 pts our side

Massey

New Mexico by 3.50.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

New Mexico by 5.51.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean New Mexico. Massey at New Mexico by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

Model number

45.63.1 pts over the market

Pace number

46.94.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

384.5 pts under the market

Massey

49.97.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.9, 4.4 pts over the market's 42.5; the model says 45.6, 3.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	North Dakota State ML
Kalshi	-4.5	43.5	-191 64¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-4 -113	42.5 -110	-192	+160

All 21 books

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	North Dakota State ML
Kalshi	-4.5	43.5	-191 64¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -112	42.5 -113	-180	+143
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4.5 -105	42.5 -108	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	42.5 -104	—	—
betPARX	-4 -112	42.5 -113	-180	+143
BetRivers	-4 -113	42.5 -114	-180	+143
BetUS	-4.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Bovada	-4.5 -105	42.5 -110	-185	+160
Caesars	-4.5 -105	42.5 -107	-179	+150
Courtside	-4.5 -105	41.5 -117	-176	+153
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	42.5 -105	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	42.5 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-3.5 -118	42.5 -115	-182	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -105	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -101	42.5 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	43.5 -110	-179	+145
Pinnacle	-4 -113	42.5 -110	-192	+160
ReBet	-4.5 -109	43.5 -114	-187	+139
theScore Bet	-4.5 -105	42.5 -115	-175	+150

Marked: best for New Mexico, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -4.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (New Mexico):

Fanatics-4 -110edge +0.4%
DraftKings +2-4.5 -105edge +0.2%
FanDuel-3.5 -118edge -0.1%
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -2.9%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

New Mexico to win · -180 at Caesars

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (New Mexico to win):

Caesars +1-179edge +1.3%
FanDuel-182edge +1.0%
Fanatics +2-190edge -0.0%
DraftKings Predictions-203 (65¢ on the app)edge -1.5%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 42.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is New Mexico to win · -180 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 58°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: New Mexico Lobos -4.5, only $95 available; Over 43.5, only $49 available; New Mexico Lobos ML, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico by 5.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Dakota State and New Mexico's last game
FPI	-10.5	-368
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-3.5	-162
Market (19 books)	-4.0	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos ML	-180	-190	+1.2%
Spread	New Mexico Lobos -4.0	-110	-112	+0.4%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.2.

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Auburn +8

Nasty Number LSU by 7.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

LSU by 8

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen LSU and Auburn's last game

FPI

LSU by 61.7 pts our side

Sagarin

LSU by 62.1 pts our side

Massey

LSU by 44 pts our side

Nasty Number

LSU by 7.50.5 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Auburn. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter number, 3 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 3 points since it opened, from +5.5 to +8.5. Better number for anyone taking Auburn now: 3 more points. The market has come toward the Nasty Number: it agrees with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

51.92 pts over the market

Pace number

50on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

43.26.7 pts under the market

Massey

49.6on the market

The pace number is 50, 0.2 pts over the market's 49.8; the model says 51.9, 2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	LSU ML
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+240 28¢	-306 74¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 +100	50 -114	+254	-324

All 22 books

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	LSU ML
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+240 28¢	-306 74¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -110	49.5 -112	+245	-315
BetAnything	+9 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	49.5 -108	+240	-300
BetOnline.ag	+9 -110	49 -110	—	—
betPARX	+7.5 -110	49.5 -112	+245	-315
BetRivers	+7.5 -112	49.5 -113	+245	-315
BetUS	+9 -110	49 -110	—	—
Bovada	+8.5 -110	50.5 -105	+260	-320
Caesars	+8.5 -114	49.5 -113	+240	-295
Courtside	+8.5 -115	49.5 -108	+251	-297
DraftKings	+8.5 -115	49.5 -110	+245	-305
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	50 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+8.5 -112	50.5 -104	+235	-295
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -110	49.5 -110	+250	-325
LowVig.ag	+9 -106	49 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+8.5 -110	50.5 -110	+246	-323
Pinnacle	+7.5 +100	50 -114	+254	-324
Polymarket	—	—	—	-300
ReBet	+8.5 -116	50.5 -109	+224	-319
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	49.5 -115	+240	-290

Marked: best for Auburn, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +8.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Auburn):

Fanatics +1+8.5 -110edge +0.2%
FanDuel+8.5 -112edge -0.2%
Caesars+8.5 -114edge -0.7%
DraftKings+8.5 -115edge -0.9%
DraftKings Predictions+7.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Auburn to win · +245 at DraftKings

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Auburn to win):

Fanatics+250edge -1.6%
DraftKings+245edge -2.0%
BetMGM +2+240edge -2.4%
FanDuel+235edge -2.9%
DraftKings Predictions+212 (30¢ on the app)edge -5.1%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 50

The pace number is 50, 0.2 pts over the market's 49.8; the model says 51.9, 2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +8.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Auburn, so the number is better for anyone taking Auburn now than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +7.5, only $4 available; Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 7.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen LSU and Auburn's last game
FPI	+6.0	+207
Sagarin	+6.0	+199
Massey	+4.0	+168
Market (19 books)	+8.0	+288

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers +8.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	+245	+271	-2.0%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward LSU Tigers since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 0.7.

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

TCU -8.5

Nasty Number TCU by 8.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 8.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more West Virginia than the bookmore TCU →

Market

TCU by 8.5Guido, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen West Virginia and TCU's last game

FPI

TCU by 11

Sagarin

TCU by 8.5

Massey

TCU by 9.5

Nasty Number

TCU by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from TCU by 7.5 to TCU by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56Guido

Model number

55.9on the market

Pace number

54.31.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.20.8 pts under the market

Massey

56.80.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 57.5, pace number 54.2 against a market total of 58.5). The number is gone. Best now Under 57.5 at DraftKings Predictions: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 58.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	West Virginia ML
Guido	-8.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-8 -108	56.5 -112	-314	+247

All 23 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	West Virginia ML
Guido	-8.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -110	56.5 -110	-345	+260
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	57 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-8.5 -108	56.5 -110	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
betPARX	-8.5 -110	56.5 -110	-345	+260
BetRivers	-8.5 -112	56.5 -110	-345	+260
BetUS	-8.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
Bovada	-8 -110	56.5 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-8.5 -109	56.5 -110	-320	+250
Courtside	-8.5 -108	56.5 -110	-302	+256
DraftKings	-8.5 -108	56.5 -112	-310	+250
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 55¢ -132 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-8 -110	56.5 -110	-310	+250
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	56.5 -114	-320	+255
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	56.5 -110	-350	+260
LowVig.ag	-8.5 -111	56 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	57 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-8 -108	56.5 -112	-314	+247
Polymarket	—	—	-300	—
ReBet	-8.5 -114	56.5 -119	-350	+242
theScore Bet	-9.5 -110	56.5 -115	-290	+240

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU -8.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU):

Fanatics-8 -110edge -1.2%
DraftKings +1-8.5 -108edge -1.8%
Caesars-8.5 -109edge -2.0%
FanDuel-8.5 -110edge -2.2%
Guido-8.5 -115edge -3.3%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

TCU to win · -300 at BetMGM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (TCU to win):

BetMGM-300edge +0.2%
Kalshi-306 (74¢)edge -0.2%
Fanatics +1-310edge -0.4%
FanDuel +1-320edge -1.0%
DraftKings Predictions-376 (77¢ on the app)edge -3.8%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Under 58.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward TCU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs -9.5, only $73 available; West Virginia Mountaineers +9.5, only $26 available; Over 56.5, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -8.5 here against -8.2 consensus.

Guido: total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTCU by 8.532% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen West Virginia and TCU's last game
FPI	-11.0	-374
Sagarin	-8.5	-303
Massey	-9.5	-317
Market (19 books)	-8.5	-289

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	TCU Horned Frogs ML	-300	-303	+0.2%
Spread	TCU Horned Frogs -8.0	-110	-105	-1.2%
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 10-18 06:04; total has moved down 2.0.

Guido: spread -8.5 here against -8.2 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson Tigers

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:00pm

Clemson to win

our data says 58 in 100 · -134

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 3, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Clemson →

Market

Clemson by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Clemson's last game

FPI

Clemson by 3

Sagarin

Clemson by 3.5

Massey

Clemson by 7

Nasty Number

Clemson by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

Model number

51.41.9 pts over the market

Pace number

50.20.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

44.35.2 pts under the market

Massey

50.81.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 50.2, 0.7 pts over the market's 49.5; the model says 51.4, 1.9 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	-2.5	—	-155 59¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-3 -108	49.5 -110	-150	+128

All 21 books

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	-2.5	—	-155 59¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	49.5 -110	-136	+105
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -102	49.5 -108	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -109	49.5 -110	-136	+105
BetRivers	-2.5 -110	49.5 -112	-137	+105
BetUS	-2.5 -120	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3 -105	49.5 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -110	49.5 -112	-140	+115
Courtside	-3 -103	49.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-3 -105	49.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	49.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -114	49.5 -106	-134	+112
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	49.5 -110	-135	+105
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	49.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	—	49.5 -110	-143	+117
Pinnacle	-3 -108	49.5 -110	-150	+128
ReBet	-2.5 -119	49.5 -111	-149	+112
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	49.5 -110	-130	+110

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson -2.5 · -114 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Clemson):

FanDuel-2.5 -114edge -0.2%
BetMGM-3 -102edge -1.0%
DraftKings +1-3 -105edge -1.7%
Caesars-3 -110edge -2.9%
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -3.9%

Not Nasty

Clemson to win · -134 at FanDuel

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53. Where, best first (Clemson to win):

FanDuel +1-134edge +0.5%
BetMGM +2-140edge -0.6%
Kalshi-155 (59¢)edge -2.9%
DraftKings Predictions-157 (59¢ on the app)edge -3.3%

Not Nasty

The total · 49.5

The pace number is 50.2, 0.7 pts over the market's 49.5; the model says 51.4, 1.9 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson to win · -134 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 4.3 toward Clemson).

Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers -2.5, only $54 available; Over 49.5, only $303 available; Under 49.5, only $299 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onClemson by 316% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Clemson's last game
FPI	-3.0	-131
Sagarin	-3.5	-154
Massey	-7.0	-244
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-133

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-134	-137	+0.5%
Spread	Clemson Tigers -2.5	-114	-113	-0.2%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Clemson Tigers since 10-16 11:23.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona Wildcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

Iowa State +10.5

Nasty Number Arizona by 10 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore Arizona →

Market

Arizona by 10.5

The Four

SP+

Arizona by 15.55.1 pts against us

FPI

Arizona by 91.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Arizona by 82.5 pts our side

Massey

Arizona by 3.56.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 100.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Iowa State. SP+ at Arizona by 15.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter number, 1 pt

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point since it opened, from +9.5 to +10.5. Better number for anyone taking Iowa State now: a point more. The market has moved away from the Nasty Number: it doesn't agree with the read.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

Model number

50.60.9 pts under the market

Pace number

52.40.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.10.5 pts over the market

Massey

50.41.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 52.4, 0.9 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 50.6, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Iowa State ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	—	—	+240 28¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -108	51.5 -110	-285	+227

All 22 books

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Iowa State ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	—	—	+240 28¢
Bally Bet	-10 -108	51.5 -110	-360	+280
BetAnything	-10 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10 -108	51.5 -110	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-10 -110	52 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10 -108	51.5 -110	-360	+280
BetRivers	-10 -109	51.5 -112	-385	+280
BetUS	-10 -110	52 -110	—	—
Bovada	-10.5 -110	51.5 -110	-280	+230
Caesars	-10 -110	51.5 -108	-320	+250
Courtside	-10 -110	51.5 -108	-297	+251
DraftKings	-10 -112	51.5 -110	-305	+245
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 56¢ -138 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	52 -105	-330	+260
FanDuel	-10.5 +100	51.5 -110	-350	+275
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-10 -106	52 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	51.5 -110	-360	+270
Pinnacle	-10.5 -108	51.5 -110	-285	+227
Polymarket	—	—	-300	—
ReBet	-10.5 -109	51.5 -114	-380	+260
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	51.5 -110	-300	+250

Marked: best for Iowa State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State +10.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State):

Kalshi+10.5 -107 (50¢)edge +0.7%
DraftKings+10 -108edge -1.3%
Caesars+10 -109edge -1.5%
BetMGM +1+10 -110edge -1.7%
FanDuel+10.5 -122edge -2.5%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +275 at FanDuel

We make it 23 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 23 cents fair, a play under 19. Where, best first (Iowa State to win):

FanDuel+275edge -3.4%
Fanatics+260edge -4.5%
BetMGM +1+250edge -5.3%
DraftKings+245edge -5.7%
Kalshi+240 (28¢)edge -6.1%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

The total · 51.5

The pace number is 52.4, 0.9 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 50.6, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $53 available; Under 51.5, only $78 available; Arizona Wildcats ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 1024% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-557
FPI	-9.0	-306
Sagarin	-8.0	-284
Massey	-3.5	-163
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +10.5	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+275	+329	-3.4%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 12:00pm

Baylor -1.5

Nasty Number Baylor by 1.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Baylor than the bookmore Kansas →

Market

Baylor by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Baylor and Kansas's last game

FPI

Baylor by 3

Sagarin

Baylor by 1

Massey

Baylor by 0.5

Nasty Number

Baylor by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

Model number

55.10.7 pts over the market

Pace number

513.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

48.65.9 pts under the market

Massey

56.21.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55.2, pace number 50.9 against a market total of 54.5). Still there: DraftKings -110, Caesars -110, Fanatics -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Baylor ML
Kalshi	+1.5	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+1.5 -105	54.5 -109	+105	-122

All 22 books

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Baylor ML
Kalshi	+1.5	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2 -110	54.5 -107	+108	-130
BetAnything	+1 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2 -110	54.5 -105	+105	-130
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	54 -105	—	—
betPARX	+2 -110	54.5 -107	+108	-130
BetRivers	+2 -112	54.5 -108	+107	-132
BetUS	+1 -110	54 -105	—	—
Bovada	+2 -110	54.5 -110	+105	-125
Caesars	+1.5 -106	54.5 -109	+108	-127
Courtside	+1.5 -110	54.5 -108	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	54.5 -110	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 54¢ -127 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2 -110	54.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -106	53.5 -115	+112	-134
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -105	54.5 -105	+110	-130
LowVig.ag	+2 -106	54 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	54.5 -110	+108	-132
Pinnacle	+1.5 -105	54.5 -109	+105	-122
Polymarket	+1.5 -108	—	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -116	54.5 -114	+103	-137
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	54.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas +2.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kansas):

BetMGM +1+2 -110edge -1.3%
FanDuel +1+1.5 -106edge -1.4%
DraftKings+1.5 -110edge -2.4%
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.9%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +112 at FanDuel

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Kansas to win):

FanDuel+112edge +0.2%
Kalshi+109 (46¢)edge -0.5%
Caesars+108edge -0.7%
DraftKings +2+105edge -1.4%
DraftKings Predictions-108 (50¢ on the app)edge -4.6%

Not Nasty

Under 54.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55.2, pace number 50.9 against a market total of 54.5). Still there: DraftKings -110, Caesars -110, Fanatics -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Kansas).

Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks +1.5, only $284 available; Over 54.5, only $296 available; Under 54.5, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBaylor by 1.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Baylor and Kansas's last game
FPI	+3.0	+142
Sagarin	+1.0	+106
Massey	+0.5	-100
Market (19 books)	+1.5	+116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+112	+111	+0.2%
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +2.0	-110	-104	-1.3%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 10-18 06:04; total has moved up 0.9.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Buffalo -4.5

Nasty Number Buffalo by 4.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buffalo by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Buffalo by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Buffalo →

Market

Buffalo by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Bowling Green and Buffalo's last game

FPI

Buffalo by 7.5

Sagarin

Buffalo by 5

Massey

a pick'em

Nasty Number

Buffalo by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

Model number

47.42.9 pts over the market

Pace number

48.64.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

35.78.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.80.3 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 46.7, pace number 48.6 against a market total of 43.5, edge +0.3%). The number is gone. Best now Over 44.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 43.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

	Buffalo spread	Total (over)	Buffalo ML	Bowling Green ML
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -108	44.5 -110	-204	+169

All 22 books

	Buffalo spread	Total (over)	Buffalo ML	Bowling Green ML
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -113	44.5 -107	-180	+145
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	44 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4.5 -105	44.5 -108	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3.5 -113	44.5 -107	-180	+145
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	44.5 -108	-182	+145
BetUS	-4.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-4.5 -110	44.5 -110	-200	+170
Caesars	-4.5 -109	44.5 -110	-190	+159
Courtside	-4.5 -108	44.5 -103	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -108	44.5 -105	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	44.5 -110	-200	+165
FanDuel	-3.5 -114	44.5 -105	-178	+146
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -106	44.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	44 -110	-218	+174
Pinnacle	-4.5 -108	44.5 -110	-204	+169
Polymarket	—	—	-186	+163
ReBet	-4.5 -111	44.5 -109	-228	+166
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	44.5 -105	-190	+160

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo -3.5 · -114 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buffalo):

FanDuel-3.5 -114edge -0.8%
BetMGM-4.5 -105edge -1.3%
DraftKings-4.5 -108edge -2.0%
Caesars-4.5 -109edge -2.3%
Fanatics-4.5 -110edge -2.5%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Buffalo to win · -178 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Buffalo to win):

FanDuel-178edge +0.0%
BetMGM +1-190edge -1.5%
DraftKings-192edge -1.7%
Kalshi +1-200edge -2.6%
DraftKings Predictions-223 (67¢ on the app)edge -4.9%

Not Nasty

Over 43.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 59°F.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls -4.5, only $52 available; Bowling Green Falcons +4.5, only $52 available; Over 44.5, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBuffalo by 4.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Bowling Green and Buffalo's last game
FPI	-7.5	-276
Sagarin	-5.0	-182
Massey	PK	+100
Market (19 books)	-4.5	-183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	40.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	-178	-178	+0.0%
Spread	Buffalo Bulls -3.5	-114	-111	-0.8%
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at SMU Mustangs

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

California +19

Nasty Number SMU by 17.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 19.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 19

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen California and SMU's last game

FPI

SMU by 16

Sagarin

SMU by 13.5

Massey

SMU by 13.5

Nasty Number

SMU by 17.51.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

Model number

57.33.6 pts over the market

Pace number

53.40.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.80.9 pts under the market

Massey

53.90.3 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 57.3, pace number 53.4 against a market total of 53.6, edge +0.3%). Still there: Fanatics -110, BetMGM -110, FanDuel -112.

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	California ML
Kalshi	—	—	-869 89¢	—
Pinnacle	-19.5 -108	53.5 -112	-1181	+680

All 21 books

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	California ML
Kalshi	—	—	-869 89¢	—
Bally Bet	-17.5 -108	54.5 -110	-910	+575
BetAnything	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-19 -108	53.5 -110	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-20 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-17.5 -108	54.5 -110	-910	+575
BetRivers	-17.5 -109	54.5 -112	-1000	+575
BetUS	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-18.5 -110	54 -110	-1000	+650
Courtside	-19.5 -109	53.5 -110	-943	+679
DraftKings	-18.5 -115	53.5 -112	-1000	+650
DraftKings Predictions	-18.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	92¢ -1567 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-19.5 -110	53.5 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-17.5 -118	53.5 -112	-1100	+680
Hard Rock Bet	-17.5 -110	54.5 -110	-900	+575
LowVig.ag	-20 -106	53.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	-1099	+660
Pinnacle	-19.5 -108	53.5 -112	-1181	+680
Polymarket	—	—	-1011	—
ReBet	-19.5 -116	53.5 -114	-1299	+600
theScore Bet	-19.5 -115	53.5 -110	-1600	+800

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +19.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (California):

Fanatics+19.5 -110edge +2.5%
DraftKings+18.5 -105edge +2.0%
BetMGM+19 -110edge +1.7%
Caesars+18.5 -109edge +1.0%
FanDuel+17.5 -104edge -0.4%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

California to win · +650 at DraftKings

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (California to win):

Fanatics +1+700edge +0.3%
FanDuel+680edge -0.0%
DraftKings +1+650edge -0.6%
DraftKings Predictions+488 (15¢ on the app)edge -4.2%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

Over 53.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 57.3, pace number 53.4 against a market total of 53.6, edge +0.3%). Still there: Fanatics -110, BetMGM -110, FanDuel -112.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -17.0, now -19.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward SMU).

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $48 available; California Golden Bears +20.5, only $41 available; Over 53.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 17.532% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen California and SMU's last game
FPI	-16.0	-580
Sagarin	-13.5	-454
Massey	-13.5	-437
Market (18 books)	-19.0	-954

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	53.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +19.0	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+650	+682	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward SMU Mustangs since 10-18 06:04; total has moved down 0.9.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Cincinnati Bearcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Texas Tech -11

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 11.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 11, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Cincinnati →

Market

Texas Tech by 11

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas Tech and Cincinnati's last game

FPI

Texas Tech by 12.5

Sagarin

Texas Tech by 12

Massey

Texas Tech by 9

Nasty Number

Texas Tech by 11.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 10 to Texas Tech by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

Model number

59.12.5 pts over the market

Pace number

56.3on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

56.8on the market

Massey

54.81.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.3, 0.2 pts under the market's 56.5; the model says 59.1, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Texas Tech ML
Kalshi	+10.5	—	—	-458 81¢
Pinnacle	+11.5 -117	56.5 -113	+342	-467

All 22 books

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Texas Tech ML
Kalshi	+10.5	—	—	-458 81¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -110	56.5 -108	+320	-420
BetAnything	+10.5 -110	57 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+10.5 -112	56.5 -108	+333	-425
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -116	56.5 -105	—	—
betPARX	+10.5 -110	56.5 -108	+320	-420
BetRivers	+10.5 -112	56.5 -109	+310	-420
BetUS	+10.5 -115	56.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	+10.5 -110	56.5 -115	+345	-470
Caesars	+10.5 -113	56.5 -112	+340	-440
Courtside	+10.5 -108	56.5 -108	+350	-426
DraftKings	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+340	-440
DraftKings Predictions	+10.5 55¢ -132 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in
Fanatics	+10.5 -110	57 -110	+340	-450
FanDuel	+10.5 -112	56.5 -110	+315	-410
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+325	-425
LowVig.ag	+10.5 -112	56.5 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+11 -110	56.5 -110	+330	-441
Pinnacle	+11.5 -117	56.5 -113	+342	-467
Polymarket	—	—	—	-426
ReBet	+11.5 -119	56.5 -114	+310	-469
theScore Bet	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+320	-425

Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -10.5 · -107 at Caesars

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas Tech):

Caesars +1-10.5 -107edge -0.1%
FanDuel +1-10.5 -108edge -0.3%
DraftKings +1-10.5 -110edge -0.8%
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -3.4%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Texas Tech to win · -426 at BetMGM

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas Tech to win):

FanDuel-410edge -0.8%
BetMGM-425edge -1.3%
DraftKings +1-440edge -1.9%
Fanatics-450edge -2.2%
Kalshi-458 (81¢)edge -2.4%
1 more at worse prices

Off the band

The total · 56.5

The pace number is 56.3, 0.2 pts under the market's 56.5; the model says 59.1, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bearcats +10.5, only $51 available; Over 57.5, only $151 available; Under 57.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 11.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas Tech and Cincinnati's last game
FPI	+12.5	+412
Sagarin	+12.0	+411
Massey	+9.0	+308
Market (19 books)	+11.0	+405

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	55.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Tech Red Raiders -10.5	-107	-107	-0.1%
Moneyline	Texas Tech Red Raiders ML	-426	-391	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Florida Atlantic Owls

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Under 55.5

weather: 20 mph wind and 52% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 10, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 10Guido, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rice and Florida Atlantic's last game

FPI

Florida Atlantic by 8

Sagarin

Florida Atlantic by 10

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 7.5

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 9.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 9.5 to Florida Atlantic by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5Guido

Model number

55.80.3 pts over the market

Pace number

56.40.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

50.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

55.6on the market

The pace number is 56.4, 0.7 pts over the market's 55.8; the model says 55.8, 0 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Rice ML
Guido	-10 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	—	-381 78¢	—
Pinnacle	-10 -107	56 -109	-400	+302

All 22 books

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Rice ML
Guido	-10 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	—	-381 78¢	—
Bally Bet	-10 -106	55.5 -110	-420	+310
BetAnything	-10 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-9.5 -110	55.5 -108	-400	+310
BetOnline.ag	-10 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10 -106	55.5 -110	-420	+310
BetRivers	-10 -107	55.5 -112	-420	+310
BetUS	-10 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-10 -110	56 -110	-400	+300
Caesars	-10 -110	55.5 -114	-400	+305
Courtside	-10 -106	55.5 -108	-383	+319
DraftKings	-10 -108	55.5 -110	-395	+310
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 58¢ -150 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	56 -110	-400	+310
FanDuel	-10.5 -102	55.5 -110	-400	+310
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 +100	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-10 -106	55.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	55.5 -110	-391	+295
Pinnacle	-10 -107	56 -109	-400	+302
ReBet	-10.5 -105	55.5 -111	-410	+275
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	55.5 -110	-380	+290

Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +10.0 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rice):

Caesars +2+10 -110edge -0.6%
FanDuel+10.5 -120edge -1.0%
DraftKings+10 -112edge -1.0%
BetMGM+9.5 -108edge -2.0%
Kalshi+10.5 -126 (54¢)edge -2.1%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rice to win · +310 at DraftKings

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Rice to win):

DraftKings +3+310edge -0.2%
Caesars+305edge -0.5%
DraftKings Predictions+257 (26¢ on the app)edge -3.8%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 56

The pace number is 56.4, 0.7 pts over the market's 55.8; the model says 55.8, 0 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 81°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $50 available; Under 56.5, only $81 available; Rice Owls ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 9.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rice and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI	-8.0	-288
Sagarin	-10.0	-337
Massey	-7.5	-261
Market (19 books)	-10.0	-361

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +10.0	-110	-108	-0.6%
Moneyline	Rice Owls ML	+310	+314	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.7.

Guido: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Indiana -7

Nasty Number Indiana by 7 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Indiana by 7Guido, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Indiana and Michigan's last game

FPI

Indiana by 11

Sagarin

Indiana by 8

Massey

Indiana by 8

Nasty Number

Indiana by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 7.5 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5Guido

Model number

45.54 pts over the market

Pace number

47.25.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

38.72.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.93.4 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 47.3, pace number 47.1 against a market total of 43.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: Caesars 41.5 -107, DraftKings 41.5 -110, Fanatics 41.5 -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Indiana ML
Guido	+7 -110	41.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5	41.5 -121 53¢	—	-290 73¢
Pinnacle	+7 -105	42 -110	+228	-285

All 23 books

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Indiana ML
Guido	+7 -110	41.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5	41.5 -121 53¢	—	-290 73¢
Bally Bet	+7 -113	41.5 -105	+230	-286
BetAnything	+7 -110	41 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7 -105	41.5 -110	+230	-285
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	41.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+7 -113	41.5 -105	+230	-286
BetRivers	+7 -114	41.5 -106	+225	-295
BetUS	+7 -110	41.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+7 -105	42 -110	+230	-280
Caesars	+7 -112	41.5 -107	+230	-290
Courtside	+7 -108	41.5 -108	+236	-278
DraftKings	+7 -110	41.5 -110	+230	-285
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in	75¢ -335 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	41.5 -110	+230	-285
FanDuel	+7.5 -118	41.5 -114	+235	-295
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 +100	41.5 -105	+230	-275
LowVig.ag	+7 -106	41.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+255	-330
Pinnacle	+7 -105	42 -110	+228	-285
Polymarket	—	—	—	-285
ReBet	+7.5 -125	41.5 -111	+242	-350
theScore Bet	+6.5 +100	41.5 -110	+220	-270

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -7.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Indiana):

Caesars-7 -108edge -0.3%
DraftKings +2-7 -110edge -0.7%
BetMGM-7 -112edge -1.2%
Kalshi-7.5 +101 (48¢)edge -1.4%
FanDuel-7.5 -104edge -2.6%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · -285 at DraftKings

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Indiana to win):

DraftKings +2-285edge -1.9%
Kalshi +1-290edge -2.2%
FanDuel-295edge -2.6%
DraftKings Predictions-335 (75¢ on the app)edge -4.9%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 43.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 47.3, pace number 47.1 against a market total of 43.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: Caesars 41.5 -107, DraftKings 41.5 -110, Fanatics 41.5 -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Michigan). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines +7.5, only $0 available; Under 41.5, only $2 available; Michigan Wolverines ML, only $283 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 724% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Indiana and Michigan's last game
FPI	+11.0	+378
Sagarin	+8.0	+290
Massey	+8.0	+288
Market (19 books)	+7.0	+263

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	41.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -7.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	-285	-259	-1.9%
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Michigan Wolverines since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 2.7.

Guido: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanes

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Under 51

weather: 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 21.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Miami →

Market

Miami by 21

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Miami's last game

FPI

Miami by 19.5

Sagarin

Miami by 16.5

Massey

Miami by 16

Nasty Number

Miami by 201.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

50.10.9 pts under the market

Pace number

53.32.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.41.6 pts under the market

Massey

52.31.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.3, 2.4 pts over the market's 51; the model says 50.1, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	—	51.5	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Pinnacle	-21 -104	51 -107	-1821	+906

All 20 books

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	—	51.5	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Bally Bet	-21 -114	50.5 -115	—	+1150
BetAnything	-21 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-21 -105	51.5 -102	-2000	+1100
BetOnline.ag	-21 -104	51.5 -105	—	—
betPARX	-21 -114	50.5 -115	—	+1150
BetRivers	-21 -115	50.5 -117	—	+1100
BetUS	-21 -105	51.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	-21 -110	51 -105	-1900	+900
Caesars	-21 -107	51.5 -103	-2500	+1100
Courtside	-21 -106	50.5 -116	-1635	+1064
DraftKings	-21 -108	50.5 -118	-1800	+1000
Fanatics	-21 -105	51 -110	-1800	+1050
FanDuel	-20.5 -115	51.5 -105	-2500	+1100
Hard Rock Bet	-21.5 -105	50.5 -115	-3000	+1200
LowVig.ag	-21 +100	51.5 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-21 -110	51 -110	-1786	+860
Pinnacle	-21 -104	51 -107	-1821	+906
ReBet	-21.5 -114	50.5 -119	-1887	+730
theScore Bet	-21.5 +100	51.5 -105	—	+1300

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh +21.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Pittsburgh):

DraftKings+21 -112edge +0.6%
Caesars+21 -113edge +0.4%
Fanatics +1+21 -115edge -0.1%
FanDuel+20.5 -105edge -0.3%

Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Pittsburgh to win · +1100 at FanDuel

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win):

FanDuel +3+1100edge +1.8%
Fanatics+1050edge +1.4%
DraftKings+1000edge +1.0%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 51

The pace number is 53.3, 2.4 pts over the market's 51; the model says 50.1, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 80°F, 44% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Pittsburgh).

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 2024% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Miami's last game
FPI	-19.5	-852
Sagarin	-16.5	-608
Massey	-16.0	-573
Market (19 books)	-21.0	-1659

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers +21.0	-110	-115	+1.0%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	+1100	+891	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 2.5.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Northwestern Wildcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Northwestern -16.5

Nasty Number Northwestern by 16.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rutgers than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 16.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rutgers and Northwestern's last game

FPI

Northwestern by 18.5

Sagarin

Northwestern by 14.5

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 16.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

58.40.4 pts under the market

Pace number

55.23.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

65.36.4 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 58.8, pace number 55.2 against a market total of 58.3). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Rutgers ML
Kalshi	-16.5	—	-788 88¢	—
Pinnacle	-16.5 -105	59 -102	-822	+526

All 21 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Rutgers ML
Kalshi	-16.5	—	-788 88¢	—
Bally Bet	-16.5 -109	58.5 -115	-910	+550
BetAnything	-16.5 -110	58.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-16 -108	58.5 -110	-800	+600
BetOnline.ag	-15.5 -110	59 -110	—	—
betPARX	-16.5 -109	58.5 -115	-910	+550
BetRivers	-16.5 -110	58.5 -115	-910	+550
BetUS	-15.5 -110	59 -110	—	—
Bovada	-15.5 -110	59 -110	-850	+550
Caesars	-15.5 -114	58.5 -112	-950	+600
Courtside	-16.5 -106	58.5 -113	-807	+599
DraftKings	-16.5 -108	58.5 -115	-850	+575
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 54¢ -127 all-in	57.5 58¢ -150 all-in	91¢ -1328 all-in	16¢ +456 all-in
Fanatics	-16 -110	58.5 -110	-800	+550
FanDuel	-15.5 -115	58.5 -106	-880	+580
Hard Rock Bet	-16.5 -110	58.5 -115	-900	+550
LowVig.ag	-15.5 -106	59 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-16.5 -110	58.5 -110	-752	+510
Pinnacle	-16.5 -105	59 -102	-822	+526
ReBet	-16.5 -119	58.5 -116	-847	+470
theScore Bet	-16.5 -110	58.5 -105	-1400	+750

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -16.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northwestern):

BetMGM-16 -108edge -1.4%
Fanatics-16 -110edge -1.8%
Caesars-15.5 -114edge -2.0%
DraftKings-16.5 -108edge -2.1%
FanDuel-15.5 -115edge -2.2%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Northwestern to win · -850 at DraftKings

We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 89, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win):

Kalshi +2-788edge -3.2%
DraftKings-850edge -3.9%
FanDuel-880edge -4.3%
Caesars-950edge -4.9%
DraftKings Predictions-1328 (91¢ on the app)edge -7.5%

Off the band

Under 58.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 58.8, pace number 55.2 against a market total of 58.3). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats -16.5, only $29 available; Over 58.5, only $104 available; Under 58.5, only $371 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 16.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rutgers and Northwestern's last game
FPI	-18.5	-778
Sagarin	-14.5	-534
Massey	rates Rutgers and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)	-16.5	-738

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	65.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -16.0	-108	-102	-1.4%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	-850	-591	priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 11:00am

Toledo -3.5

Nasty Number Toledo by 3.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 3.5Guido, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Michigan and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 2

Sagarin

Toledo by 1

Massey

Toledo by 5.5

Nasty Number

Toledo by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5Guido

Model number

46.61.1 pts over the market

Pace number

50.95.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

42.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

49.13.6 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 45.6, pace number 50.9 against a market total of 44.5). The number is gone. Best now Over 45.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 44.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Western Michigan ML
Guido	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	—	—	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	45.5 -110	-178	+150

All 22 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Western Michigan ML
Guido	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	—	—	+140 40¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -112	45.5 -109	-177	+143
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	45.5 -108	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3.5 -112	45.5 -109	-177	+143
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	45.5 -110	-180	+143
BetUS	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -109	45.5 -110	-176	+148
Courtside	-3.5 -110	45.5 -106	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	45.5 -108	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-166	+138
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	45.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-200	+161
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	45.5 -110	-178	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -119	45.5 -109	-210	+155
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Michigan):

BetMGM+3.5 -108edge -0.2%
DraftKings +4+3.5 -110edge -0.6%
Kalshi+3.5 -112 (51¢)edge -1.0%
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -4.2%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · +149 at DraftKings

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win):

DraftKings+150edge +0.0%
Caesars+148edge -0.3%
BetMGM +1+145edge -0.8%
Kalshi+140 (40¢)edge -1.7%
FanDuel+138edge -2.0%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 44.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $105 available; Under 45.5, only $53 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 3.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Michigan and Toledo's last game
FPI	-2.0	-116
Sagarin	-1.0	-107
Massey	-5.5	-195
Market (19 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	45.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos +3.5	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	+149	+150	-0.1%
Total	Over 45.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-18 10:42; total has moved up 1.0.

Guido matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Akron Zips at Kent State Golden Flashes

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 12:00pm

Kent State -3

Nasty Number Kent State by 2.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Kent State →

Market

Kent State by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Akron and Kent State's last game

FPI

Kent State by 2.5

Sagarin

Kent State by 2

Massey

Kent State by 1

Nasty Number

Kent State by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

Model number

482.7 pts over the market

Pace number

493.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

450.4 pts under the market

Massey

50.45.1 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 46.9, pace number 49, ratings 47.7 against a market total of 43.5, edge +2.2%). The number is gone. Best now Over 44.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 43.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

	Kent State spread	Total (over)	Kent State ML	Akron ML
Kalshi	—	45.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -108	45.5 -111	-154	+131

All 21 books

	Kent State spread	Total (over)	Kent State ML	Akron ML
Kalshi	—	45.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -124	44.5 -112	-150	+123
BetAnything	-3 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -105	45.5 -105	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -124	44.5 -112	-150	+123
BetRivers	-2.5 -124	44.5 -113	-152	+123
BetUS	-3 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -106	45.5 -106	-154	+131
Courtside	-3 -106	45.5 -106	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	44.5 -118	-146	+122
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -125	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-3 -101	45.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	45 -110	-153	+125
Pinnacle	-3 -108	45.5 -111	-154	+131
ReBet	-2.5 -128	45.5 -109	-160	+120
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130

Marked: best for the Kent State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +3.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Akron):

Fanatics+3 -110edge -0.3%
DraftKings+3 -112edge -0.8%
Caesars+3 -114edge -1.2%
BetMGM+3 -115edge -1.4%
FanDuel+2.5 +100edge -1.6%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +127

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Akron to win):

Caesars +2+131edge +0.4%
BetMGM +1+125edge -0.8%
FanDuel+122edge -1.4%
DraftKings Predictions+113 (45¢ on the app)edge -3.4%

Not Nasty

Over 43.5 · -102 at DraftKings

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Akron). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes -2.5, only $82 available; Akron Zips +2.5, only $49 available; Over 45.5, only $78 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKent State by 2.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Akron and Kent State's last game
FPI	-2.5	-128
Sagarin	-2.0	-117
Massey	-1.0	-103
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +3.0	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+127	+129	-0.3%
Total	Over 45.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Akron Zips since 10-18 10:42; total has moved up 1.8.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewas

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 12:00pm

Miami (OH) -2

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 2 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Central Michigan →

Market

Miami (OH) by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Central Michigan's last game

FPI

Miami (OH) by 1.5

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 1

Massey

Miami (OH) by 3

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 20.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

46.23.3 pts over the market

Pace number

47.94.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

44.11.1 pts over the market

Massey

45.52.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 47.9, 4.9 pts over the market's 43; the model says 46.2, 3.3 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Miami (OH) ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -118	43 -110	+102	-119

All 21 books

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Miami (OH) ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -115	42.5 -115	-106	-117
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	43 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+1.5 -108	42.5 -112	-102	-118
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -115	43 -105	—	—
betPARX	+1.5 -115	42.5 -115	-106	-117
BetRivers	+1.5 -117	42.5 -117	-106	-117
BetUS	+2.5 -115	43 -105	—	—
Bovada	+1.5 -110	43 -110	+100	-120
Caesars	PK -110	43 -109	-110	-110
Courtside	+1.5 -111	43.5 -103	+104	-120
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	43.5 -105	+102	-122
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	51¢ -113 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	43 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	-1.5 -102	43.5 -105	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -115	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -111	43 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	43 -110	-102	-120
Pinnacle	+2.5 -118	43 -110	+102	-119
ReBet	+1.5 -116	42.5 -119	-106	-125
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	43.5 -105	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +2.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Central Michigan):

DraftKings+2.5 -115edge -2.1%
BetMGM+1.5 -108edge -2.6%
Fanatics+1.5 -110edge -3.1%
CaesarsPK -110edge -5.7%
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -5.7%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Central Michigan to win · -102 at BetMGM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Central Michigan to win):

DraftKings+102edge -2.8%
Fanatics+100edge -3.3%
BetMGM-102edge -3.8%
FanDuel +1-110edge -5.7%
DraftKings Predictions-113 (51¢ on the app)edge -6.3%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 43

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 60°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Miami (OH)).

Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas +1.5, only $51 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks -1.5, only $110 available; Over 43.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 232% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Central Michigan's last game
FPI	+1.5	+110
Sagarin	+1.0	+107
Massey	+3.0	+148
Market (19 books)	+2.0	+109

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Central Michigan Chippewas +2.0	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	Central Michigan Chippewas ML	-102	+114	-3.8%
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Miami (OH) RedHawks since 10-18 10:42.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Oregon Ducks at Illinois Fighting Illini

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:00pm

Oregon -10

Nasty Number Oregon by 10.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 10, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore Illinois →

Market

Oregon by 10

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon's last game

FPI

Oregon by 11

Sagarin

Oregon by 13

Massey

Oregon by 12

Nasty Number

Oregon by 10.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

Model number

47.44.1 pts under the market

Pace number

56.24.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

6311.5 pts over the market

Massey

58.77.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.2, 4.7 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 47.4, 4.1 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+10.5	51.5 -116 52¢	+313 23¢	—
Pinnacle	+10 -104	51.5 -112	+317	-425

All 22 books

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+10.5	51.5 -116 52¢	+313 23¢	—
Bally Bet	+10.5 -108	51.5 -113	+340	-455
BetAnything	+10.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+10 -108	51.5 -108	+320	-400
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	+10.5 -108	51.5 -113	+340	-455
BetRivers	+10.5 -109	51.5 -114	+340	-480
BetUS	+9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	+10 -105	51.5 -110	+315	-420
Caesars	+10.5 -110	52 -110	+325	-420
Courtside	+10 -106	51.5 -103	+329	-397
DraftKings	+10 -108	51.5 -105	+320	-410
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in	82¢ -526 all-in
Fanatics	+10 -105	51.5 -110	+325	-425
FanDuel	+10.5 -110	51.5 -112	+315	-410
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -110	51.5 -110	+350	-450
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -106	51 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+10.5 -110	51.5 -110	+340	-461
Pinnacle	+10 -104	51.5 -112	+317	-425
Polymarket	—	—	—	-376
ReBet	+10.5 -114	51.5 -111	+320	-490
theScore Bet	+9.5 +100	51.5 -105	+320	-425

Marked: best for the Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -10.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon):

BetMGM-10 -110edge -0.6%
DraftKings-10 -112edge -1.0%
Fanatics-10 -115edge -1.7%
Kalshi-10.5 -107 (50¢)edge -1.8%
FanDuel +1-10.5 -110edge -2.5%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -425 at Caesars

We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win):

BetMGM-400edge -1.6%
FanDuel +1-410edge -2.0%
Caesars +1-420edge -2.4%
DraftKings Predictions-526 (82¢ on the app)edge -5.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 51.5

The pace number is 56.2, 4.7 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 47.4, 4.1 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward Illinois).

Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini +10.5, only $53 available; Oregon Ducks ML, only $0 available; Illinois Fighting Illini ML, only $196 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 10.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon's last game
FPI	+11.0	+384
Sagarin	+13.0	+430
Massey	+12.0	+402
Market (19 books)	+10.0	+387

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	60.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -10.0	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-425	-363	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 10-18 06:04; total has moved down 2.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Texas A&M +14.5

Nasty Number Alabama by 14 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 14.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 13

Sagarin

Alabama by 10

Massey

Alabama by 12.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 140.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

Model number

48.12.4 pts under the market

Pace number

51.51.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

54.43.9 pts over the market

Massey

53.12.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.5, 1.1 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 48.1, 2.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	-14.5	—	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Pinnacle	-14.5 -106	50.5 -111	-685	+460

All 22 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	-14.5	—	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Bally Bet	-15.5 -109	50.5 -117	-715	+480
BetAnything	-14.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-14.5 -108	50.5 -110	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	50 -115	—	—
betPARX	-15.5 -109	50.5 -117	-715	+480
BetRivers	-15.5 -110	50.5 -117	-715	+480
BetUS	-14.5 -110	50 -115	—	—
Bovada	-14.5 -110	50.5 -110	-675	+460
Caesars	-14.5 -110	50.5 -112	-750	+500
Courtside	-14.5 -106	50.5 -110	-646	+508
DraftKings	-14.5 -108	50.5 -112	-675	+490
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	89¢ -1011 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	50.5 -115	-700	+500
FanDuel	-14.5 -112	50.5 -110	-670	+470
Hard Rock Bet	-15.5 -110	50.5 -115	-700	+475
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -106	50 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-14.5 -110	50.5 -110	-725	+480
Pinnacle	-14.5 -106	50.5 -111	-685	+460
Polymarket	—	—	-614	—
ReBet	-14.5 -114	50.5 -119	-752	+440
theScore Bet	-14.5 -110	50.5 -110	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +14.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas A&M):

FanDuel+14.5 -108edge -0.1%
Fanatics +1+14.5 -110edge -0.5%
DraftKings +1+14.5 -112edge -1.0%
Kalshi+14.5 -116 (52¢)edge -1.8%
DraftKings Predictions+14.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -5.1%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Texas A&M to win · +480

We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win):

Fanatics +2+500edge +0.4%
Kalshi +1+490edge +0.1%
FanDuel+470edge -0.5%
DraftKings Predictions+400 (18¢ on the app)edge -2.9%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 50.5

The pace number is 51.5, 1.1 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 48.1, 2.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -15.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Texas A&M).

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5, only $29 available; Over 50.5, only $11 available; Under 50.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1424% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI	-13.0	-434
Sagarin	-10.0	-342
Massey	-12.5	-412
Market (19 books)	-14.5	-611

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +14.5	-110	-108	-0.5%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+480	+486	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 3.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

BYU Cougars at UCF Knights

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

BYU -6.5

Nasty Number BYU by 6.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore UCF →

Market

BYU by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen BYU's last game

FPI

BYU by 8.5

Sagarin

BYU by 6.5

Massey

BYU by 7

Nasty Number

BYU by 6.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

45.11 pts over the market

Pace number

50.86.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

43.60.6 pts under the market

Massey

472.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 46.2, pace number 50.8 against a market total of 45.5). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 42.5 -138, Fanatics 44 -115, DraftKings 44.5 -105.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	BYU ML
Kalshi	+6.5	—	+217 30¢	-276 72¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 -103	44 -110	+210	-260

All 21 books

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	BYU ML
Kalshi	+6.5	—	+217 30¢	-276 72¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -107	44.5 -113	+215	-275
BetAnything	+6.5 -105	44 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+6.5 -108	44.5 -105	+220	-275
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 -108	44 -115	—	—
betPARX	+6.5 -107	44.5 -113	+215	-275
BetRivers	+6.5 -107	44.5 -114	+210	-275
BetUS	+6.5 -110	44 -115	—	—
Bovada	+6.5 -105	44 -110	+220	-270
Caesars	+6.5 -104	44.5 -108	+210	-260
Courtside	+6.5 -105	44.5 -103	+220	-258
DraftKings	+6.5 -105	44.5 -105	+215	-265
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 58¢ -150 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in
Fanatics	+6.5 -105	44 -115	+220	-275
FanDuel	+6.5 -115	44.5 -115	+220	-275
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	44.5 -110	+220	-275
LowVig.ag	+6.5 -104	44 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+6.5 -110	44 -110	+216	-275
Pinnacle	+6.5 -103	44 -110	+210	-260
ReBet	+6.5 -109	44.5 -111	+206	-290
theScore Bet	+6.5 -110	44.5 -105	+215	-260

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

BYU -6.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (BYU):

FanDuel-6.5 -105edge -0.7%
BetMGM-6.5 -110edge -1.9%
DraftKings +1-6.5 -115edge -3.0%
Caesars-6.5 -117edge -3.4%
Kalshi-6.5 -126 (54¢)edge -5.2%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

BYU to win · -260 at Caesars

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (BYU to win):

Caesars-260edge -3.7%
DraftKings-265edge -4.1%
FanDuel +3-275edge -4.9%
DraftKings Predictions-317 (74¢ on the app)edge -7.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 45.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 46.2, pace number 50.8 against a market total of 45.5). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 42.5 -138, Fanatics 44 -115, DraftKings 44.5 -105.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward UCF). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +6.5, only $226 available; Over 44.5, only $51 available; Under 44.5, only $242 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 6.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen BYU's last game
FPI	+8.5	+304
Sagarin	+6.5	+216
Massey	+7.0	+240
Market (19 books)	+6.5	+242

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	45.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -6.5	-105	-102	-0.7%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-260	-217	-3.7%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UCF Knights since 10-16 11:23; total has moved down 1.4.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Ball State -11.5

Nasty Number Ball State by 11.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ball State by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ball State by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Ball State →

Market

Ball State by 11.5Guido, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Sacramento State and Ball State's last game

FPI

Ball State by 14

Sagarin

Ball State by 12.5

Massey

Ball State by 5.5

Nasty Number

Ball State by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Ball State by 10.5 to Ball State by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51Guido

Model number

52.31.3 pts over the market

Pace number

53.32.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

48.42.6 pts under the market

Massey

53.52.5 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 51.3, pace number 53.3 against a market total of 49.5). The number is gone. Best now Over 50.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 2 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 48.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Ball State spread	Total (over)	Ball State ML	Sacramento State ML
Guido	-11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-11.5	—	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-11 -109	51 -110	-457	+336

All 22 books

	Ball State spread	Total (over)	Ball State ML	Sacramento State ML
Guido	-11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-11.5	—	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -112	50.5 -107	-455	+335
BetAnything	-11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-11 -110	51.5 -102	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -112	50.5 -107	-455	+335
BetRivers	-10.5 -113	50.5 -108	-455	+335
BetUS	-11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	-11 -110	51 -110	-460	+340
Caesars	-11.5 -110	51 -110	-420	+330
Courtside	-11.5 -108	51.5 -104	-426	+350
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	50.5 -120	-440	+340
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 53¢ -122 all-in	—	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	51 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	50.5 -115	-430	+330
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-11.5 -106	51 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	51 -110	-526	+370
Pinnacle	-11 -109	51 -110	-457	+336
ReBet	-12.5 -114	50.5 -125	-549	+350
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	51.5 -105	-550	+380

Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ball State -10.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ball State):

FanDuel-10.5 -110edge -0.3%
BetMGM-11 -110edge -1.2%
DraftKings +3-11.5 -110edge -2.2%
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.9%

Not Nasty

Ball State to win · -420 at Caesars

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ball State to win):

Caesars-420edge -0.8%
Kalshi +1-430edge -1.2%
DraftKings-440edge -1.5%
BetMGM +1-450edge -1.9%
DraftKings Predictions-566 (83¢ on the app)edge -5.1%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

Over 48.5 · -122 at DraftKings Predictions

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -11.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Ball State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Ball State Cardinals -11.5, only $76 available; Over 50.5, only $112 available; Under 50.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -11.5 here against -11.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBall State by 11.532% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Sacramento State and Ball State's last game
FPI	-14.0	-464
Sagarin	-12.5	-422
Massey	-5.5	-192
Market (19 books)	-11.5	-413

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ball State Cardinals -10.5	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Ball State Cardinals ML	-420	-399	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Ball State Cardinals since 10-18 10:42; total has moved up 1.5.

Guido: spread -11.5 here against -11.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Boston College Eagles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Georgia Tech -5

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 6 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 6. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Boston College than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Georgia Tech by 5Guido, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boston College and Georgia Tech's last game

FPI

Georgia Tech by 5.5

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 9

Massey

Georgia Tech by 11

Nasty Number

Georgia Tech by 61 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia Tech by 4.5 to Georgia Tech by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5Guido

Model number

51.92.4 pts over the market

Pace number

50.30.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.14.4 pts under the market

Massey

500.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 50.3, 1.1 pts over the market's 49.2; the model says 51.9, 2.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Boston College ML
Guido	-5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-5 -114	49 -114	-214	+177

All 22 books

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Boston College ML
Guido	-5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+174 35¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -117	49.5 -107	-205	+163
BetAnything	-5.5 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-5.5 -110	49.5 -108	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-4.5 -117	49.5 -107	-205	+163
BetRivers	-4.5 -118	49.5 -108	-205	+163
BetUS	-5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-5.5 -110	49.5 -105	-210	+175
Caesars	-5.5 -107	49.5 -109	-205	+172
Courtside	-5.5 -108	49.5 -108	-200	+174
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	49.5 -110	-205	+170
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-215	+175
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-205	+168
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -115	49.5 -105	-200	+165
LowVig.ag	-5 -111	49.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-228	+182
Pinnacle	-5 -114	49 -114	-214	+177
ReBet	-5.5 -114	49.5 -111	-238	+174
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-200	+170

Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -5.0 · -115 at Guido

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech):

Caesars-5.5 -107edge -0.4%
DraftKings-5.5 -108edge -0.6%
FanDuel +2-5.5 -110edge -1.1%
Guido-5 -115edge -1.2%
DraftKings Predictions-4.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -3.8%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · -205 at FanDuel

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win):

Kalshi-200 (65¢)edge +0.4%
FanDuel +2-205edge -0.2%
BetMGM-210edge -0.7%
Fanatics-215edge -1.2%
DraftKings Predictions-245 (69¢ on the app)edge -4.0%

Not Nasty

The total · 49

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $273 available; Boston College Eagles +5.5, only $52 available; Over 49.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Tech by 624% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boston College and Georgia Tech's last game
FPI	-5.5	-197
Sagarin	-9.0	-308
Massey	-11.0	-380
Market (19 books)	-5.0	-194

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0	-115	-109	-1.2%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	-205	-203	-0.2%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

Guido: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Northern Illinois Huskies

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Hawai'i -4.5

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 4.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Hawai'i by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Hawai'i and Northern Illinois's last game

FPI

Hawai'i by 4.5

Sagarin

Hawai'i by 6

Massey

Hawai'i by 3

Nasty Number

Hawai'i by 4.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

Model number

49.52.8 pts over the market

Pace number

47.50.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

43.92.8 pts under the market

Massey

42.83.9 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.8, pace number 47.5 against a market total of 45.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions -122.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	—	—	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4.5 -105	47 -105	+171	-206

All 21 books

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	—	—	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4.5 -108	45.5 -108	+160	-200
BetAnything	+4.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+4.5 -112	46.5 -110	+170	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -110	46.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+4.5 -108	45.5 -108	+160	-200
BetRivers	+5 -114	45.5 -109	+160	-200
BetUS	+4 -110	46.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	+5 -115	46.5 -110	+170	-200
Caesars	+4.5 -114	46.5 -110	+170	-205
Courtside	+4 -106	46.5 -108	+174	-200
DraftKings	+4 -108	46.5 -110	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 55¢ -132 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics	+4.5 -110	46.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -106	47.5 -106	+164	-200
Hard Rock Bet	+4.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+4 -106	46.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	46.5 -110	+175	-220
Pinnacle	+4.5 -105	47 -105	+171	-206
ReBet	+4.5 -114	46.5 -119	+168	-230
theScore Bet	+3.5 -105	46.5 -110	+170	-200

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -4.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Hawai'i):

BetMGM-4.5 -105edge -1.3%
Caesars-4.5 -106edge -1.6%
DraftKings-4 -112edge -1.6%
Fanatics-4.5 -110edge -2.5%
FanDuel-4.5 -114edge -3.4%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Hawai'i to win · -202

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win):

FanDuel-200edge -2.6%
DraftKings +2-205edge -3.1%
Kalshi +1-208edge -3.5%
DraftKings Predictions-245 (69¢ on the app)edge -7.0%

Not Nasty

Over 45.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.8, pace number 47.5 against a market total of 45.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions -122.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -4.5, only $3 available; Over 46.5, only $311 available; Under 46.5, only $297 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHawai'i by 4.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Hawai'i and Northern Illinois's last game
FPI	+4.5	+180
Sagarin	+6.0	+199
Massey	+3.0	+148
Market (19 books)	+4.5	+189

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	43.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -4.5	-105	+100	-1.3%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	-202	-178	-2.9%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-18 10:42; total has moved up 1.2.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

Oklahoma -3

Nasty Number Oklahoma by 3 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma by 3, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Mississippi State →

Market

Oklahoma by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma and Mississippi State's last game

FPI

Oklahoma by 1

Sagarin

Oklahoma by 3

Massey

Oklahoma by 3

Nasty Number

Oklahoma by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oklahoma by 2.5 to Oklahoma by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

471 pts over the market

Pace number

50.74.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.13.1 pts over the market

Massey

537 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 47.8, pace number 50.7, ratings 51 against a market total of 46.6). Still there: FanDuel 45.5 -112, DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -122, Fanatics 46 -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+124 43¢	—
Pinnacle	+3 -105	46 -110	+131	-154

All 21 books

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+124 43¢	—
Bally Bet	+3 -115	45.5 -112	+112	-136
BetAnything	+3 -107	46 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3 -110	46.5 -105	+125	-145
BetOnline.ag	+3 -107	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -115	45.5 -112	+112	-136
BetRivers	+3 -117	45.5 -113	+112	-137
BetUS	+3 -105	46 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 -105	46 -110	+130	-150
Caesars	+3 -112	46 -110	+123	-145
Courtside	+3 -106	46.5 -106	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -108	46.5 -108	+124	-148
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -105	46 -110	+120	-145
FanDuel	+2.5 +104	45.5 -112	+128	-154
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +100	45.5 -110	+110	-135
LowVig.ag	+3 -103	46 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	46 -110	+123	-151
Pinnacle	+3 -105	46 -110	+131	-154
ReBet	+2.5 -103	46.5 -111	+118	-157
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	46.5 -110	+135	-155

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State +3.0 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State):

Fanatics+3 -105edge -0.7%
DraftKings+3 -108edge -1.4%
BetMGM+3 -110edge -1.9%
FanDuel+2.5 +104edge -2.1%
Caesars+3 -112edge -2.4%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Mississippi State to win · +123 at Caesars

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win):

FanDuel+128edge -1.7%
BetMGM +2+125edge -2.3%
Caesars+123edge -2.7%
Fanatics+120edge -3.3%
DraftKings Predictions+108 (46¢ on the app)edge -5.9%

Not Nasty

Over 46.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5, only $486 available; Over 46.5, only $101 available; Under 46.5, only $377 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma by 324% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma and Mississippi State's last game
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+3.0	+133
Massey	+3.0	+146
Market (19 books)	+3.0	+138

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.0	-105	-102	-0.7%
Moneyline	Mississippi State Bulldogs ML	+123	+137	-2.7%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Texas Mean Green at Navy Midshipmen

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:30pm

North Texas -2

Nasty Number North Texas by 2.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says North Texas by 2, the Nasty Number says North Texas by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Navy →

Market

North Texas by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Navy's last game

FPI

North Texas by 4.5

Sagarin

North Texas by 3.5

Massey

North Texas by 4

Nasty Number

North Texas by 2.50.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

56.35.7 pts under the market

Pace number

59.82.2 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

64.12 pts over the market

Massey

64.92.9 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 56, pace number 59.8 against a market total of 61.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM 62.5 -112, Fanatics 62 -110, Caesars 62 -112.

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	North Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	+101 48¢	—
Pinnacle	+2 -108	62 -107	+106	-124

All 17 books

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	North Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	+101 48¢	—
BetAnything	+2 -110	62.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2 -110	62.5 -105	+105	-130
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	62 -110	—	—
BetUS	+2 -110	62 -110	—	—
Bovada	+2 -110	62 -105	+105	-125
Caesars	+2 -108	62 -108	+108	-127
Courtside	+1.5 -105	61.5 -113	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -105	61.5 -115	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 57¢ -144 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2 -110	62 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -106	61.5 -114	+104	-125
LowVig.ag	+2 -106	62 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	62.5 -110	+105	-129
Pinnacle	+2 -108	62 -107	+106	-124
ReBet	+2.5 -119	62.5 -111	+101	-134
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	62.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas -2.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (North Texas):

BetMGM-2 -108edge -0.9%
FanDuel-1.5 -114edge -1.2%
Fanatics-2 -110edge -1.3%
DraftKings-1.5 -115edge -1.4%
Caesars-2 -112edge -1.8%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

North Texas to win · -125 at DraftKings

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (North Texas to win):

DraftKings +2-125edge -0.8%
Caesars-127edge -1.2%
BetMGM-130edge -1.8%
DraftKings Predictions-144 (57¢ on the app)edge -4.4%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Under 61.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 56, pace number 59.8 against a market total of 61.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM 62.5 -112, Fanatics 62 -110, Caesars 62 -112.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen +1.5, only $25 available; North Texas Mean Green -1.5, only $50 available; Over 62.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Texas by 2.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Navy's last game
FPI	+4.5	+177
Sagarin	+3.5	+161
Massey	+4.0	+173
Market (15 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	64.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Texas Mean Green -2.0	-110	-104	-1.3%
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	-125	-121	-0.8%
Total	Over 62.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 2:45pm

Kansas State -3.5

Nasty Number Kansas State by 3.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Kansas State by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas State and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Kansas State by 5.5

Sagarin

Kansas State by 3

Massey

Kansas State by 3.5

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

571.1 pts over the market

Pace number

56.80.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

532.9 pts under the market

Massey

56.20.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.8, 0.9 pts over the market's 55.9; the model says 57, 1.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Kansas State ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	—	—	—
Pinnacle	+3.5 -110	56 -115	+146	-173

All 21 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Kansas State ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	—	—	—
Bally Bet	+3.5 -121	56.5 -108	+140	-175
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3.5 -110	55.5 -110	+140	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -107	55 -115	—	—
betPARX	+3.5 -121	56.5 -108	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -121	56.5 -109	+140	-175
BetUS	+3.5 -105	55 -115	—	—
Bovada	+3.5 -110	56.5 -105	+145	-170
Caesars	+3.5 -115	56.5 -106	+137	-162
Courtside	+3.5 -112	55.5 -108	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	55.5 -110	+140	-166
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 58¢ -150 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	56 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	56.5 -110	+136	-164
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -120	56.5 -110	+140	-170
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -103	55 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	55 -110	+148	-183
Pinnacle	+3.5 -110	56 -115	+146	-173
ReBet	+3.5 -114	55.5 -114	+142	-191
theScore Bet	+3.5 -110	55.5 -110	+140	-165

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona State +3.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arizona State):

BetMGM +1+3.5 -110edge -2.2%
DraftKings+3.5 -112edge -2.6%
FanDuel +1+3.5 -115edge -3.3%
Kalshi+3.5 -121 (53¢)edge -4.6%
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.8%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arizona State to win · +140 at DraftKings

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Arizona State to win):

Fanatics+145edge -2.3%
DraftKings +1+140edge -3.2%
Caesars +1+137edge -3.7%
DraftKings Predictions+123 (43¢ on the app)edge -6.4%

Not Nasty

The total · 56

The pace number is 56.8, 0.9 pts over the market's 55.9; the model says 57, 1.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats -3.5, only $214 available; Over 56.5, only $102 available; Under 56.5, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 3.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas State and Arizona State's last game
FPI	+5.5	+195
Sagarin	+3.0	+140
Massey	+3.5	+154
Market (19 books)	+3.5	+159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Arizona State Sun Devils ML	+140	+160	-3.2%
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-18 06:04.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 3:00pm

Ohio -11

Nasty Number Ohio by 11 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 11, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 11

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Ohio's last game

FPI

Ohio by 12

Sagarin

Ohio by 11.5

Massey

Ohio by 11

Nasty Number

Ohio by 110.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

Model number

50.91.3 pts over the market

Pace number

50.10.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

463.6 pts under the market

Massey

49.6on the market

The pace number is 50.1, 0.6 pts over the market's 49.6; the model says 50.9, 1.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Eastern Michigan ML
Kalshi	-11.5	—	—	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-11 -108	49.5 -110	-454	+335

All 21 books

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Eastern Michigan ML
Kalshi	-11.5	—	—	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -110	50.5 -105	-480	+340
BetAnything	-11 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-11 -105	49.5 -108	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-11 -112	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -110	50.5 -105	-480	+340
BetRivers	-10.5 -112	50.5 -106	-480	+340
BetUS	-11 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-11 -110	49.5 -110	-450	+335
Caesars	-11 -106	49.5 -110	-420	+325
Courtside	-10.5 -112	49.5 -108	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	49.5 -110	-410	+320
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	82¢ -526 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics	-11 -110	49.5 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-430	+330
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-11 -108	49.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-11 -110	49.5 -110	-481	+350
Pinnacle	-11 -108	49.5 -110	-454	+335
ReBet	-10.5 -119	49.5 -111	-500	+330
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	49.5 -110	-500	+360

Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -11.0 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ohio):

BetMGM-11 -105edge -1.0%
FanDuel-10.5 -110edge -1.2%
Caesars-11 -106edge -1.3%
DraftKings-10.5 -112edge -1.7%
Fanatics-11 -110edge -2.2%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · -410 at DraftKings

We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ohio to win):

DraftKings-410edge -1.1%
Caesars-420edge -1.5%
FanDuel-430edge -1.8%
BetMGM +1-450edge -2.5%
DraftKings Predictions-526 (82¢ on the app)edge -4.7%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 49.5

The pace number is 50.1, 0.6 pts over the market's 49.6; the model says 50.9, 1.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -11.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Ohio). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -11.5, only $210 available; Over 49.5, only $52 available; Under 49.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 1124% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Ohio's last game
FPI	-12.0	-409
Sagarin	-11.5	-400
Massey	-11.0	-374
Market (19 books)	-11.0	-407

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -11.0	-105	-101	-1.0%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-410	-383	priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Ohio Bobcats since 10-18 10:42.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 3:00pm

Troy -17.5

Nasty Number Troy by 17.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 17.5.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore Troy →

Market

Troy by 17.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UL Monroe and Troy's last game

FPI

Troy by 19

Sagarin

Troy by 16.5

Massey

Troy by 17.5

Nasty Number

Troy by 17.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

54.13 pts over the market

Pace number

52.61.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

608.8 pts over the market

Massey

54.53.4 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 53.8, pace number 52.6, ratings 57.2 against a market total of 50.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: FanDuel -112, DraftKings -115, BetMGM -115.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	UL Monroe ML
Kalshi	—	—	-869 89¢	+625 13¢
Pinnacle	-17.5 +100	51.5 -107	-940	+579

All 20 books

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	UL Monroe ML
Kalshi	—	—	-869 89¢	+625 13¢
Bally Bet	-17.5 -108	50.5 -107	-1000	+600
BetAnything	-17.5 -110	50 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-17 -110	50.5 -115	-900	+650
BetOnline.ag	-17.5 -104	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-17.5 -108	50.5 -107	-1000	+600
BetRivers	-17.5 -109	50.5 -108	-1000	+600
BetUS	-17.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-17 -110	51 -110	-950	+600
Caesars	-17 -110	50.5 -115	-1200	+675
Courtside	-17.5 -103	50.5 -113	-898	+652
DraftKings	-17.5 -105	50.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-17 -110	51 -110	-950	+650
FanDuel	-17.5 -110	50.5 -112	-1100	+680
Hard Rock Bet	-17.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-17.5 +100	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-17.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1000	+620
Pinnacle	-17.5 +100	51.5 -107	-940	+579
ReBet	-17.5 -119	50.5 -116	-1099	+560
theScore Bet	-17.5 -105	50.5 -115	-1600	+800

Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +17.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (UL Monroe):

FanDuel+17.5 -110edge -2.1%
DraftKings+17.5 -115edge -3.2%
BetMGM+17 -108edge -3.5%
Caesars +1+17 -110edge -4.0%

Blowout line

UL Monroe to win · +625 at DraftKings

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win):

FanDuel +1+680edge -0.2%
BetMGM +1+650edge -0.7%
DraftKings +1+625edge -1.2%

Off the band

Over 50.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 53.8, pace number 52.6, ratings 57.2 against a market total of 50.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: FanDuel -112, DraftKings -115, BetMGM -115.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.

Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans -16.5, only $27 available; UL Monroe Warhawks +16.5, only $187 available; Over 51.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTroy by 17.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UL Monroe and Troy's last game
FPI	-19.0	-817
Sagarin	-16.5	-604
Massey	-17.5	-685
Market (19 books)	-17.5	-845

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	57.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +17.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+625	+694	priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 4:00pm

Louisiana -10

Nasty Number Louisiana by 10 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 10, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Southern Miss →

Market

Louisiana by 10

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana and Southern Miss's last game

FPI

Louisiana by 9.5

Sagarin

Louisiana by 13.5

Massey

Louisiana by 5.5

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 100.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

Model number

55.22.7 pts over the market

Pace number

520.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

62.29.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.92.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 52, 0.6 pts under the market's 52.6; the model says 55.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	+331 22¢	-404 79¢
Pinnacle	+10 -108	52.5 -109	+312	-416

All 20 books

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	+331 22¢	-404 79¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -115	52.5 -112	+310	-420
BetAnything	+10 -110	53 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+10.5 -115	52.5 -110	+310	-400
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -108	52.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+10.5 -115	52.5 -112	+310	-420
BetRivers	+10.5 -117	52.5 -113	+310	-420
BetUS	+10.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+10 -110	52.5 -110	+310	-415
Caesars	+10.5 -110	52.5 -110	+330	-440
Courtside	+10.5 -112	52.5 -110	+329	-397
DraftKings	+10.5 -112	52.5 -112	+320	-410
Fanatics	+10 -110	52.5 -110	+310	-400
FanDuel	+10.5 -118	53.5 -106	+290	-375
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -115	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+10.5 -104	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+10.5 -110	53 -110	+320	-420
Pinnacle	+10 -108	52.5 -109	+312	-416
ReBet	+10.5 -116	52.5 -116	+295	-450
theScore Bet	+10.5 -110	53.5 -105	+290	-380

Marked: best for the Southern Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +10.5 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Southern Miss):

Caesars+10.5 -110edge -0.8%
DraftKings+10.5 -112edge -1.2%
BetMGM+10.5 -115edge -1.9%
FanDuel+10.5 -118edge -2.5%
Fanatics+10 -110edge -2.6%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Southern Miss to win · +331 (22¢) at Kalshi

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win):

Kalshi +1+331edge -0.5%
DraftKings+320edge -1.1%
BetMGM +1+310edge -1.7%
FanDuel+290edge -3.0%

Off the band

The total · 52.5

The pace number is 52, 0.6 pts under the market's 52.6; the model says 55.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5, only $338 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -10.5, only $127 available; Over 52.5, only $298 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 1016% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana and Southern Miss's last game
FPI	+9.5	+312
Sagarin	+13.5	+436
Massey	+5.5	+195
Market (19 books)	+10.0	+372

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	58.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+331	+341	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 4:00pm

Louisiana Tech -10.5

Nasty Number Louisiana Tech by 11 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Louisiana Tech by 10.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech's last game

FPI

Louisiana Tech by 13

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 13.5

Massey

Louisiana Tech by 3.5

Nasty Number

Louisiana Tech by 110.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

48.93.1 pts over the market

Pace number

50.85 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.60.7 pts over the market

Massey

50.74.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.7, pace number 50.8, ratings 48.6 against a market total of 45.5, edge +0.8%). Still there: DraftKings -108, BetMGM -110, DraftKings Predictions -117.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Old Dominion ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -121 53¢	—	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -110	46 -112	-436	+324

All 21 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Old Dominion ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -121 53¢	—	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10 -113	45.5 -108	-400	+295
BetAnything	-10.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -108	45.5 -110	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -108	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10 -113	45.5 -108	-400	+295
BetRivers	-10 -114	45.5 -109	-400	+295
BetUS	-10.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Bovada	-10.5 -110	46 -110	-435	+325
Caesars	-10.5 -107	46 -114	-440	+330
Courtside	-10.5 -105	45.5 -106	-412	+339
DraftKings	-10.5 -105	45.5 -108	-425	+330
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	46 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -115	46.5 -110	-480	+360
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -105	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -104	46 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	45 -110	-500	+370
Pinnacle	-10.5 -110	46 -112	-436	+324
ReBet	-10.5 -119	45.5 -111	-549	+340
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	45.5 -110	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech -10.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Louisiana Tech):

DraftKings-10.5 -105edge -0.5%
Caesars-10.5 -107edge -1.0%
BetMGM-10.5 -108edge -1.2%
Fanatics-10.5 -110edge -1.7%
FanDuel-10.5 -115edge -2.8%
2 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Louisiana Tech to win · -435 at Caesars

We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Louisiana Tech to win):

DraftKings +2-425edge -2.0%
Caesars-440edge -2.5%
BetMGM-450edge -2.8%
FanDuel-480edge -3.8%
DraftKings Predictions-566 (83¢ on the app)edge -6.0%

Off the band

Over 45.5 · -108 at BetMGM

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Louisiana Tech). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs +10.5, only $91 available; Over 46.5, only $104 available; Under 46.5, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana Tech by 1116% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech's last game
FPI	-13.0	-425
Sagarin	-13.5	-445
Massey	-3.5	-164
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-394

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	48.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -10.5	-105	-103	-0.5%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	-435	-376	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-18 11:55.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 4:00pm

Nevada -5

Nasty Number Nevada by 5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San José State than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Nevada by 5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San José State and Nevada's last game

FPI

Nevada by 7

Sagarin

Nevada by 4.5

Massey

Nevada by 2.5

Nasty Number

Nevada by 50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

48.62.7 pts over the market

Pace number

48.93 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

387.9 pts under the market

Massey

48.22.3 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.4, pace number 48.9 against a market total of 45.5, edge +0.8%). Still there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -110.

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	San José State ML
Kalshi	-5.5	—	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-5 -108	46 -112	-208	+173

All 22 books

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	San José State ML
Kalshi	-5.5	—	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Bally Bet	-5.5 -110	45.5 -108	-200	+155
BetAnything	-5 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-6 -102	45.5 -110	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-5.5 -110	45.5 -108	-200	+155
BetRivers	-5.5 -110	45.5 -109	-200	+155
BetUS	-5.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-5 -110	46 -110	-210	+175
Caesars	-5.5 -112	45.5 -110	-205	+171
Courtside	-5.5 -110	45.5 -108	-200	+174
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	45.5 -110	-205	+170
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 55¢ -132 all-in	—	69¢ -245 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	46 -110	-205	+170
FanDuel	-5.5 -118	45.5 -115	-220	+180
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -111	46.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	45.5 -110	-236	+188
Pinnacle	-5 -108	46 -112	-208	+173
Polymarket	—	—	-213	—
ReBet	-5.5 -114	45.5 -111	-248	+180
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	45.5 -110	-200	+170

Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State +5.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (San José State):

FanDuel+5.5 -104edge -0.2%
Caesars+5.5 -108edge -1.1%
BetMGM+6 -115edge -1.4%
DraftKings +1+5.5 -110edge -1.6%
Kalshi+5.5 -112 (51¢)edge -1.9%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

San José State to win · +180 at FanDuel

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (San José State to win):

FanDuel+180edge -0.8%
BetMGM+175edge -1.5%
Caesars +2+171edge -2.0%
Kalshi+166 (36¢)edge -2.7%
DraftKings Predictions+150 (38¢ on the app)edge -5.1%

Not Nasty

Over 45.5 · -108 at BetMGM

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.4, pace number 48.9 against a market total of 45.5, edge +0.8%). Still there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.

Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack -5.5, only $25 available; Over 46.5, only $51 available; Under 46.5, only $197 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San José State and Nevada's last game
FPI	-7.0	-233
Sagarin	-4.5	-179
Massey	-2.5	-126
Market (19 books)	-5.0	-192

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Jose State Spartans +5.5	-104	-103	-0.2%
Moneyline	San Jose State Spartans ML	+180	+186	-0.8%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Boise State Broncos at Washington State Cougars

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 5:00pm

Boise State -12.5

Nasty Number Boise State by 12.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Washington State →

Market

Boise State by 12.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Washington State's last game

FPI

Boise State by 16.5

Sagarin

Boise State by 12.5

Massey

Boise State by 6

Nasty Number

Boise State by 12.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

52.41.4 pts over the market

Pace number

51.50.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.14 pts under the market

Massey

49.81.3 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 52.7, pace number 51.5 against a market total of 50.5, edge +0.3%). The number is gone. Best now Over 51 at Fanatics: the total has moved 0.5 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 50.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington State spread	Total (over)	Washington State ML	Boise State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-524 83¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -112	51 -110	+365	-507

All 21 books

	Washington State spread	Total (over)	Washington State ML	Boise State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-524 83¢
Bally Bet	+13 -113	50.5 -113	+410	-590
BetAnything	+13 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+12 -108	51.5 -105	+400	-500
BetOnline.ag	+11.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+13 -113	50.5 -113	+410	-590
BetRivers	+13 -114	50.5 -114	+410	-590
BetUS	+11.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	+12 -110	51 -110	+370	-510
Caesars	+12.5 -110	51.5 -104	+400	-530
Courtside	+12.5 -108	51.5 +100	+392	-483
DraftKings	+12.5 -110	51.5 -102	+380	-500
DraftKings Predictions	+11.5 53¢ -122 all-in	—	22¢ +317 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in
Fanatics	+12 -110	51 -110	+390	-525
FanDuel	+12.5 -106	51.5 -105	+440	-610
Hard Rock Bet	+12.5 -105	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+11.5 -106	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+13 -110	51 -110	+390	-549
Pinnacle	+12.5 -112	51 -110	+365	-507
ReBet	+13.5 -116	51.5 -105	+380	-625
theScore Bet	+11.5 -110	51.5 +100	+340	-450

Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boise State -12.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Boise State):

Fanatics +1-12 -110edge -1.8%
DraftKings +1-12.5 -110edge -2.4%
FanDuel-12.5 -114edge -3.3%
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -5.8%

Not Nasty

Boise State to win · -527 (83¢) at Kalshi

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boise State to win):

BetMGM +1-500edge -2.7%
Kalshi +2-524edge -3.3%
FanDuel-610edge -5.3%
DraftKings Predictions-670 (85¢ on the app)edge -6.4%

Off the band

Over 50.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 51°F.

Across the books: opened +16.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Washington State). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Washington State Cougars +11.5, only $0 available; Boise State Broncos -11.5, only $26 available; Washington State Cougars ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 12.532% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Washington State's last game
FPI	+16.5	+601
Sagarin	+12.5	+419
Massey	+6.0	+204
Market (19 books)	+12.5	+466

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boise State Broncos -12.5	-110	+100	-2.4%
Moneyline	Boise State Broncos ML	-527	-417	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Washington State Cougars since 10-18 06:04; total has moved up 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia State Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:00pm

Arkansas State +2.5

Nasty Number Georgia State by 2 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore Arkansas State →

Market

Georgia State by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia State and Arkansas State's last game

FPI

Arkansas State by 0.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Georgia State by 0.5

Nasty Number

Georgia State by 20.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

Model number

580.7 pts over the market

Pace number

55.91.4 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

66.89.4 pts over the market

Massey

602.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.9, 1.4 pts under the market's 57.3; the model says 58, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	Georgia State ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	—	+105 47¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -108	57.5 -111	+112	-131

All 22 books

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	Georgia State ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	—	+105 47¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -114	56.5 -109	+107	-132
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -110	57.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	57 -115	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -114	56.5 -109	+107	-132
BetRivers	+2.5 -115	56.5 -110	+107	-132
BetUS	+2.5 -105	57 -115	—	—
Bovada	+2.5 -110	57.5 -110	+110	-130
Caesars	+2.5 -109	57.5 -109	+106	-125
Courtside	+2.5 -112	57.5 -106	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -112	57.5 -108	+110	-130
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	57.5 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -108	57.5 -114	+105	-126
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -115	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -101	57 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	57 -110	+104	-127
Pinnacle	+2.5 -108	57.5 -111	+112	-131
Polymarket	+2.5 -108	—	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -116	57.5 -111	+100	-132
theScore Bet	+1.5 -115	57.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas State +2.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas State):

FanDuel+2.5 -108edge -0.5%
Caesars+2.5 -109edge -0.8%
BetMGM +1+2.5 -110edge -1.0%
DraftKings+2.5 -112edge -1.4%
Kalshi+2.5 -116 (52¢)edge -2.3%
1 more at worse prices

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas State to win · +107

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Arkansas State to win):

DraftKings +1+110edge -1.0%
Caesars +1+106edge -1.9%
BetMGM +1+105edge -2.1%
DraftKings Predictions-104 (49¢ on the app)edge -4.4%

Not Nasty

The total · 57.5

The pace number is 55.9, 1.4 pts under the market's 57.3; the model says 58, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia State).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $52 available; Under 57.5, only $25 available; Arkansas State Red Wolves ML, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia State by 224% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI	-0.5	+100
Sagarin	PK	-100
Massey	+0.5	-100
Market (19 books)	+2.5	+120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	63.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas State Red Wolves +2.5	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves ML	+107	+114	-1.7%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 10-18 11:55; total has moved up 1.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Colorado Buffaloes at Oklahoma State Cowboys

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:00pm

Colorado +13.5

Nasty Number Oklahoma State by 13 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado and Oklahoma State's last game

FPI

Oklahoma State by 10.5

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 11

Massey

Oklahoma State by 6

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 130.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

Model number

54.80.7 pts under the market

Pace number

51.83.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.38.2 pts under the market

Massey

49.46 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55, pace number 51.9, ratings 48.4 against a market total of 55.5). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -105, Fanatics -110.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	—	—	-524 83¢	—
Pinnacle	-13.5 -107	55.5 -110	-567	+398

All 21 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	—	—	-524 83¢	—
Bally Bet	-13.5 -122	54.5 -122	-670	+460
BetAnything	-13.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-13.5 -108	55.5 -112	-550	+425
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -110	55.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	-13.5 -122	54.5 -122	-670	+460
BetRivers	-13.5 -122	54.5 -122	-715	+460
BetUS	-13.5 -110	55.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	-13.5 -110	55.5 -110	-575	+400
Caesars	-13.5 -107	55.5 -108	-560	+400
Courtside	-13.5 -110	56.5 -109	-530	+423
DraftKings	-13.5 -112	55.5 -115	-550	+410
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 58¢ -150 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	55.5 -110	-550	+410
FanDuel	-13.5 -110	55.5 -105	-580	+420
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -120	54.5 -120	-650	+450
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -106	55.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	56 -110	-575	+400
Pinnacle	-13.5 -107	55.5 -110	-567	+398
ReBet	-13.5 -119	55.5 -116	-625	+380
theScore Bet	-13.5 -105	56.5 -110	-600	+400

Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado):

DraftKings+13.5 -108edge -1.3%
FanDuel +2+13.5 -110edge -1.7%
Caesars+13.5 -113edge -2.4%
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.2%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colorado to win · +410 at DraftKings

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado to win):

BetMGM +1+425edge -0.2%
DraftKings +1+410edge -0.7%
Caesars+400edge -1.1%
DraftKings Predictions+335 (21¢ on the app)edge -4.1%

Off the band

Under 55.5 · -112 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 55, pace number 51.9, ratings 48.4 against a market total of 55.5). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -105, Fanatics -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Colorado). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma State Cowboys -13.5, only $278 available; Colorado Buffaloes +13.5, only $13 available; Over 56.5, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 1316% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado and Oklahoma State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-366
Sagarin	-11.0	-380
Massey	-6.0	-204
Market (19 books)	-13.5	-515

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado Buffaloes +13.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Colorado Buffaloes ML	+410	+430	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 10-18 06:04.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

Kentucky -10.5

Nasty Number Kentucky by 11.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kentucky by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Kentucky by 11.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

Kentucky by 10.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Kentucky's last game

FPI

Kentucky by 14.5

Sagarin

Kentucky by 14

Massey

Kentucky by 6

Nasty Number

Kentucky by 11.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 10 to Kentucky by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

Model number

54.12.7 pts over the market

Pace number

553.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.18.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.33.9 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 54.3, pace number 55, ratings 57.7 against a market total of 51.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM -105, DraftKings -110, FanDuel -110.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	51.5	-458 81¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -112	51.5 -111	-463	+340

All 21 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	51.5	-458 81¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -108	51.5 -105	-420	+320
BetAnything	-11 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -112	51.5 -105	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -115	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -108	51.5 -105	-420	+320
BetRivers	-10.5 -109	51.5 -106	-420	+285
BetUS	-10.5 -115	50.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-11 -110	51.5 -110	-460	+340
Caesars	-10.5 -112	51.5 -112	-440	+340
Courtside	-10.5 -112	51.5 -108	-426	+350
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	51.5 -110	-440	+340
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 54¢ -127 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-11 -110	51.5 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -108	51.5 -110	-410	+315
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	51.5 -105	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -111	50.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	51.5 -110	-500	+360
Pinnacle	-10.5 -112	51.5 -111	-463	+340
ReBet	-11.5 -111	51.5 -114	-526	+330
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	51.5 -110	-425	+320

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky -10.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kentucky):

FanDuel-10.5 -108edge -0.3%
Kalshi +3-10.5 -112edge -1.1%
Fanatics-11 -110edge -1.7%
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -4.3%

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · -410 at FanDuel

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kentucky to win):

FanDuel-410edge -0.7%
DraftKings +1-440edge -1.8%
Fanatics +1-450edge -2.2%
Kalshi-458 (81¢)edge -2.4%
DraftKings Predictions-566 (83¢ on the app)edge -5.3%

Off the band

Over 51.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 54.3, pace number 55, ratings 57.7 against a market total of 51.5, edge +0.3%). Still there: BetMGM -105, DraftKings -110, FanDuel -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5, only $1 available; Over 51.5, only $52 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $248 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKentucky by 11.524% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Kentucky's last game
FPI	-14.5	-532
Sagarin	-14.0	-471
Massey	-6.0	-206
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-406

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	57.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats -10.5	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	-410	-391	priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-16 18:57; total has moved down 1.1.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar Heels

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

North Carolina -9.5

Nasty Number North Carolina by 9 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says North Carolina by 9.5, the Nasty Number says North Carolina by 9. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore North Carolina →

Market

North Carolina by 9.5Guido, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Syracuse and North Carolina's last game

FPI

North Carolina by 10.5

Sagarin

North Carolina by 8

Massey

North Carolina by 7

Nasty Number

North Carolina by 90.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5Guido

Model number

49.32.8 pts over the market

Pace number

50.74.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.21.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.33.8 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 48.9, pace number 50.7, ratings 47.7 against a market total of 44.5, edge +0.3%). The number is gone. Best now Over 45.5 at DraftKings: the total has moved 1 pt toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 44.5 and a worse number for an Over now. Don't chase.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Syracuse ML
Guido	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
Pinnacle	-9 -110	46 -112	-360	+277

All 22 books

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Syracuse ML
Guido	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -110	45.5 -107	-360	+275
BetAnything	-9.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-9 -110	46.5 -108	-350	+275
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-8.5 -110	45.5 -107	-360	+275
BetRivers	-8.5 -112	45.5 -108	-360	+270
BetUS	-8.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-9.5 -110	46 -110	-360	+280
Caesars	-9.5 -107	46.5 -112	-345	+275
Courtside	-8.5 -119	46.5 -110	-335	+282
DraftKings	-9.5 -105	45.5 -115	-345	+275
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	46 -110	-350	+275
FanDuel	-9.5 -105	46.5 -110	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	45.5 -105	-350	+275
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -111	46.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	45.5 -110	-350	+265
Pinnacle	-9 -110	46 -112	-360	+277
ReBet	-9.5 -111	44.5 -116	-360	+250
theScore Bet	-9.5 -105	46.5 -110	-360	+280

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse +9.5 · -105 at Guido

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Syracuse):

Guido+9.5 -105edge -0.6%
Fanatics+9.5 -110edge -1.7%
BetMGM+9 -110edge -2.2%
Caesars+9.5 -113edge -2.4%
FanDuel +2+9.5 -115edge -2.9%
1 more at worse prices

Not Nasty

Syracuse to win · +275 at Fanatics

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Syracuse to win):

Kalshi+280 (25¢)edge -1.6%
Fanatics +3+275edge -2.0%
FanDuel+270edge -2.3%
DraftKings Predictions+233 (28¢ on the app)edge -5.3%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 44.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $52 available; Under 46.5, only $375 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $240 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Guido: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.

Guido: total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Carolina by 924% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Syracuse and North Carolina's last game
FPI	-10.5	-371
Sagarin	-8.0	-285
Massey	-7.0	-235
Market (19 books)	-9.5	-323

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Syracuse Orange +9.5	-105	-103	-0.6%
Moneyline	Syracuse Orange ML	+275	+305	-2.0%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.5.

Guido: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

Texas State -11.5

Nasty Number Texas State by 11 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Texas State →

Market

Texas State by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas State's last game

FPI

Texas State by 10

Sagarin

Texas State by 14

Massey

Texas State by 5.5

Nasty Number

Texas State by 110.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

62.43.5 pts over the market

Pace number

55.43.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

56.32.6 pts under the market

Massey

57.90.9 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 61.7, pace number 55.4 against a market total of 59.5). The number is gone. Best now Under 59 at Fanatics: the total has moved 0.5 pts toward the pace number, closing line value for the posted 59.5 and a worse number for an Under now. Don't chase.

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Utah State ML
Kalshi	-11.5	—	-458 81¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-11.5 -108	59 -110	-476	+347

All 21 books

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Utah State ML
Kalshi	-11.5	—	-458 81¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -110	58.5 -113	-480	+340
BetAnything	-11.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-11 -110	58.5 -112	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-11.5 -110	58.5 -113	-480	+340
BetRivers	-11.5 -112	58.5 -113	-480	+340
BetUS	-13 -110	58.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-11.5 -110	59 -110	-480	+350
Caesars	-11.5 -110	58.5 -114	-440	+340
Courtside	-11.5 -108	58.5 -113	-440	+360
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	58.5 -115	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 54¢ -127 all-in	57.5 58¢ -150 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	59 -110	-475	+360
FanDuel	-11.5 -106	58.5 -110	-450	+340
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	—	—	—
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -111	58.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-12.5 -110	59 -110	-481	+350
Pinnacle	-11.5 -108	59 -110	-476	+347
ReBet	-12.5 -114	59.5 -109	-500	+330
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	59.5 -105	-500	+360

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah State +11.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Utah State):

Kalshi+11.5 -107 (50¢)edge -0.9%
Fanatics +2+11.5 -110edge -1.5%
BetMGM+11 -108edge -2.0%
FanDuel+11.5 -114edge -2.4%
DraftKings Predictions+11.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.1%

Not Nasty

Utah State to win · +348 (21¢) at Kalshi

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah State to win):

Fanatics+360edge -1.0%
Kalshi +2+351edge -1.4%
FanDuel +1+340edge -2.0%
DraftKings Predictions+285 (24¢ on the app)edge -5.2%

Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

Under 59.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 2.7 toward Texas State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas State Bobcats -11.5, only $128 available; Texas State Bobcats ML, only $254 available; Utah State Aggies ML, only $67 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 1132% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas State's last game
FPI	-10.0	-342
Sagarin	-14.0	-464
Massey	-5.5	-191
Market (19 books)	-11.5	-423

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +11.5	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+348	+382	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Texas State Bobcats since 10-18 06:04; total has moved down 0.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 6:30pm

USC -3

Nasty Number USC by 3 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 3, the Nasty Number says USC by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Wisconsin →

Market

USC by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wisconsin's last game

FPI

USC by 3

Sagarin

USC by 0.5

Massey

USC by 3.5

Nasty Number

USC by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 2.5 to USC by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

Model number

46.92.6 pts under the market

Pace number

52.22.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.41.9 pts over the market

Massey

522.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.2, 2.8 pts over the market's 49.5; the model says 46.9, 2.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	USC ML
Kalshi	—	50.5 +101 48¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+3 -103	49.5 -110	+128	-151

All 22 books

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	USC ML
Kalshi	—	50.5 +101 48¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -106	49.5 -114	+132	-162
BetAnything	+3 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3 -108	49.5 -108	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -106	49.5 -114	+132	-162
BetRivers	+3 -108	49.5 -115	+130	-162
BetUS	+3 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 -105	49.5 -110	+130	-150
Caesars	+3 -112	49.5 -113	+126	-150
Courtside	+3 -106	49.5 -108	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -108	49.5 -110	+124	-148
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	48.5 -114	+130	-156
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -120	49.5 -115	+130	-160
LowVig.ag	+3 -106	49.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+129	-159
Pinnacle	+3 -103	49.5 -110	+128	-151
Polymarket	—	—	+127	—
ReBet	+3.5 -133	49.5 -111	+124	-165
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wisconsin +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wisconsin):

FanDuel+3.5 -120edge -0.8%
DraftKings +1+3 -108edge -1.7%
Fanatics+3 -110edge -2.1%
Caesars+3 -112edge -2.6%
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 -113 (51¢ on the app)edge -6.2%

Not Nasty

Wisconsin to win · +127

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Wisconsin to win):

FanDuel+130edge -1.5%
Caesars +2+126edge -2.2%
Kalshi +1+124edge -2.6%
DraftKings Predictions+113 (45¢ on the app)edge -5.0%

Not Nasty

The total · 49.5

The pace number is 52.2, 2.8 pts over the market's 49.5; the model says 46.9, 2.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward USC). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Wisconsin Badgers +3.5, only $474 available; USC Trojans -3.5, only $496 available; USC Trojans ML, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 324% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wisconsin's last game
FPI	+3.0	+131
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	+3.5	+163
Market (19 books)	+3.0	+140

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wisconsin Badgers +3.5	-120	-116	-0.8%
Moneyline	Wisconsin Badgers ML	+127	+138	-2.0%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward USC Trojans since 10-16 18:57; total has moved down 2.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Cougars at Utah Utes

CFB Sat 24 Oct, 9:15pm

Utah -6.5

Nasty Number Utah by 6.5 · nothing here

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston and Utah's last game

FPI

Utah by 5.5

Sagarin

Utah by 4

Massey

Utah by 13

Nasty Number

Utah by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

Model number

55.90.5 pts under the market

Pace number

55.90.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.53 pts over the market

Massey

56.10.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 55.9, 0.5 pts under the market's 56.5; the model says 55.9, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	-6.5	56.5	-250 70¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -111	56.5 -110	-241	+197

All 20 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	-6.5	56.5	-250 70¢	+189 33¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -109	56.5 -112	-235	+188
BetAnything	-6.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-6.5 -112	56.5 -110	-235	+195
BetOnline.ag	-7 -107	56 -110	—	—
betPARX	-6.5 -109	56.5 -112	-235	+188
BetRivers	-6.5 -110	56.5 -113	-240	+188
BetUS	-7 -105	56 -110	—	—
Bovada	-6.5 -115	56.5 -110	-240	+200
Caesars	-6.5 -112	56.5 -109	-225	+186
Courtside	-6.5 -115	56.5 -108	-220	+189
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	56.5 -110	-225	+185
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	56.5 -110	-235	+190
FanDuel	-6.5 -112	56.5 -114	-245	+198
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -110	56.5 -110	-230	+190
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	56.5 -110	-250	+198
Pinnacle	-6.5 -111	56.5 -110	-241	+197
ReBet	-6.5 -116	56.5 -114	-260	+189
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	56.5 -110	-215	+180

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +6.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Houston):

DraftKings +2+6.5 -105edge -0.8%
Kalshi +1+6.5 -107edge -1.4%
Caesars+6.5 -109edge -1.8%
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.5%

Not Nasty

Houston to win · +198 at FanDuel

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Houston to win):

FanDuel+198edge -1.3%
BetMGM+195edge -1.6%
Fanatics +1+190edge -2.2%
Caesars +1+186edge -2.7%
DraftKings Predictions+171 (35¢ on the app)edge -4.7%

Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 56.5

The pace number is 55.9, 0.5 pts under the market's 56.5; the model says 55.9, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -6.5, only $110 available; Over 56.5, only $52 available; Utah Utes ML, only $379 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 6.516% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston and Utah's last game
FPI	-5.5	-192
Sagarin	-4.0	-166
Massey	-13.0	-432
Market (18 books)	-6.5	-218

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Cougars +6.5	-105	-101	-0.8%
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	+198	+210	-1.3%
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sun Oct 25

11 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild.

GameThe call

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Steelers -2.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Steelers by 2.5Guido, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5Guido

Model number

50.56 pts over the market

Pace number

48.43.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

45.81.3 pts over the market

FPI

43.41.1 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.4, pace number 48.4 against a market total of 44.2, edge +0.4%). Still there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -112.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Steelers ML
Guido	+2.5 -110	44.5 -115	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	44 -113	+122	-138

All 25 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Steelers ML
Guido	+2.5 -110	44.5 -115	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2 -109	44 -109	+112	-136
BetAnything	+2 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	+2 -108	44.5 -110	+115	-135
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	44.5 -115	+120	-140
betPARX	+2 -109	44 -109	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2 -109	44 -109	+112	-136
BetUS	+2 -105	—	—	—
Bovada	+2.5 -110	44.5 -105	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -110	44.5 -112	+116	-137
Courtside	+2.5 -108	44.5 -108	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	44.5 -110	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	44.5 -112	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -115	44.5 -110	+110	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2 -105	44.5 -110	+115	-130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2 -105	44.5 -110	+115	-130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2 -105	44.5 -110	+115	-130
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -113	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	44.5 -110	+110	-140
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	44 -113	+122	-138
Polymarket	—	—	+117	—
ReBet	+2.5 -109	44.5 -110	+112	-137
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	44.5 -115	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Over 44.5 · +100 at Kalshi

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.4, pace number 48.4 against a market total of 44.2, edge +0.4%). Still there: DraftKings -110, BetMGM -110, Caesars -112.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints +2.5, only $8 available; Over 44.5, only $30 available; Under 44.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Zach Wilson (Saints), Out; Drew Allar (Steelers), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Eli Heidenreich (RB, Steelers), Ben Skowronek (WR, Steelers), Nathan Shepherd (DT, Saints).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Guido: total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints's last game
Market (21 books)	+2.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 44.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido: total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

49ers -4.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more 49ers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

49ers by 4.5Guido, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5Guido

Model number

56.14.6 pts over the market

Pace number

50.11.4 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

49.42.1 pts under the market

FPI

49.22.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 50.1, 0.5 pts under the market's 50.6; the model says 56.1, 5.6 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	49ers ML
Guido	+4.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	+189 33¢	-239 69¢
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—

All 22 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	49ers ML
Guido	+4.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	+189 33¢	-239 69¢
Bally Bet	+5 -112	50 -107	+200	-245
BetAnything	+4 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	+4.5 -108	51 -110	+190	-235
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+5 -112	50 -107	+200	-245
BetRivers	+5 -112	50 -107	+200	-245
BetUS	+4.5 -105	—	—	—
Caesars	+4.5 -107	50.5 -115	+194	-235
Courtside	+4.5 -108	50.5 -113	+189	-220
DraftKings	+4.5 -110	50.5 -115	+185	-225
DraftKings Predictions	+4.5 55¢ -132 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
FanDuel	+4.5 -105	50.5 -115	+198	-240
Fliff	+4.5 -110	50.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	+5 -110	50.5 -115	+195	-240
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+5 -110	50.5 -115	+195	-240
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+5 -110	50.5 -115	+195	-240
LowVig.ag	+4.5 +100	51.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	50.5 -110	+178	-234
ReBet	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+182	-228
theScore Bet	+4.5 -105	50.5 -115	+200	-240

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 50.5

The pace number is 50.1, 0.5 pts under the market's 50.6; the model says 56.1, 5.6 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +4.5, only $30 available; San Francisco 49ers -4.5, only $41 available; Over 51.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Cooper Rush (Falcons), Out; Jack Strand (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers), Marques Sigle (S, 49ers), Nick Bosa (DE, 49ers).

Guido: total 51.5 here against 50.6 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 13 days off against 7, worth about 0.3 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons's last game
Market (19 books)	+4.5	+217

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Guido: total 51.5 here against 50.6 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Ravens -3

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 3Guido, +100

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5Guido

Model number

49.60.9 pts under the market

Pace number

48.52 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

53.22.7 pts over the market

FPI

46.63.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 48.5, 2.1 pts under the market's 50.6; the model says 49.6, 1 pt under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Bengals ML
Guido	-3 +100	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	50.5 -110	—	—

All 22 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Bengals ML
Guido	-3 +100	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -109	51 -112	-167	+135
BetAnything	-3 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -102	50.5 -112	-160	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -109	51 -112	-167	+135
BetRivers	-3 -109	51 -112	-167	+135
BetUS	-3 +100	—	—	—
Caesars	-3 -105	50.5 -114	-157	+133
Courtside	-3 -103	50.5 -110	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -105	50.5 -112	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in	—	60¢ -163 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
FanDuel	-3 -110	50.5 -118	-164	+138
Fliff	-2.5 -130	50.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -110	50.5 -115	-160	+135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -110	50.5 -115	-160	+135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -110	50.5 -115	-160	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 +105	50.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	—	-163	+127
ReBet	-3.5 +100	50.5 -120	-159	+130
theScore Bet	-3 -110	50.5 -120	-155	+135

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 50.5

The pace number is 48.5, 2.1 pts under the market's 50.6; the model says 49.6, 1 pt under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Baltimore Ravens -2.5, only $7 available; Cincinnati Bengals +2.5, only $1 available; Over 50.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Elijah Sarratt (WR, Ravens), Tanner Hudson (TE, Bengals), Andrew Vorhees (G, Ravens) and 4 more.

Cincinnati Bengals has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-147

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido matches the consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Panthers -3

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Panthers by 3Guido, -120

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5Guido

Model number

39.94.6 pts under the market

Pace number

47.63.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

48.54 pts over the market

FPI

395.5 pts under the market

The pace number is 47.6, 2.9 pts over the market's 44.7; the model says 39.9, 4.8 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Buccaneers ML
Guido	-3 -120	44.5 -105	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 +105	45 -108	-171	+150

All 25 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Buccaneers ML
Guido	-3 -120	44.5 -105	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	—
Bally Bet	-3 -118	44 -107	-180	+145
BetAnything	-3 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -118	44.5 -108	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -105	-170	+149
betPARX	-3 -118	44 -107	-180	+145
BetRivers	-3 -118	44 -107	-180	+145
BetUS	-3 -120	—	—	—
Bovada	-3 -120	45 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3 -117	44.5 -110	-173	+145
Courtside	-3 -118	43.5 -113	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 60¢ -163 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
FanDuel	-3 -118	44.5 -110	-168	+142
Fliff	-3.5 -105	44.5 -115	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -120	44.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -120	44.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -120	44.5 -110	-175	+150
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	44.5 -102	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	—	-180	+139
Pinnacle	-3.5 +105	45 -108	-171	+150
Polymarket	-3.5 +104	—	—	—
ReBet	-3.5 -105	44.5 -110	-176	+142
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	44.5 -110	-185	+155

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 44.5

The pace number is 47.6, 2.9 pts over the market's 44.7; the model says 39.9, 4.8 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Panthers). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $37 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $1 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Haynes King (Panthers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off the Four, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE, Panthers), Monroe Freeling (OT, Panthers) and 4 more.

Guido: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers's last game
Market (21 books)	-3.0	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 44.5	-115	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Carolina Panthers since 10-17 12:11; total has moved up 0.8.

Guido: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Browns -1.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Browns by 1.5Guido, -107

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37Guido

Model number

403 pts over the market

Pace number

39.92.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

37.50.5 pts over the market

FPI

37.70.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 39.9, 3.4 pts over the market's 36.5; the model says 40, 3.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Browns ML
Guido	+1.5 -107	37 -105	+107	-127
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+1.5 -103	36.5 -116	+112	-126

All 25 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Browns ML
Guido	+1.5 -107	37 -105	+107	-127
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -110	36.5 -109	+115	-139
BetAnything	+2 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	+1.5 -108	36.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -107	37 -105	+107	-127
betPARX	+2.5 -110	36.5 -109	+115	-139
BetRivers	+2.5 -110	36.5 -109	+115	-139
BetUS	+1.5 -105	—	—	—
Bovada	+2 -115	37 -110	+110	-130
Caesars	+1.5 -110	36.5 -110	+107	-125
Courtside	+1.5 -108	36.5 -108	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	36.5 -110	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	36.5 54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in
FanDuel	+1.5 -112	36.5 -110	+102	-120
Fliff	+1.5 -110	36.5 -115	+105	-130
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	36.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1.5 -110	36.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1.5 -110	36.5 -115	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -102	37 -102	+107	-127
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+102	-130
Pinnacle	+1.5 -103	36.5 -116	+112	-126
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	36.5 -117	—	-127
ReBet	+2.5 -120	36.5 -120	+104	-127
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	36.5 -115	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 36.5

The pace number is 39.9, 3.4 pts over the market's 36.5; the model says 40, 3.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 36.5, only $218 available; Under 36.5, only $2 available; Tennessee Titans ML, only $183 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Nicholas Singleton (RB, Titans), Quinshon Judkins (RB, Browns), Kylen Granson (TE, Titans) and 3 more.

Guido: total 37.0 here against 36.5 consensus.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans's last game
Market (21 books)	+1.5	+112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.0	37.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 37.0	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

Guido: total 37.0 here against 36.5 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

New York Giants at Houston Texans

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Texans -9.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 9.5Guido, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game

Massey

hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5Guido

Model number

39.73.8 pts under the market

Pace number

45.82.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

41.32.2 pts under the market

FPI

39.54 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.8, 2.4 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 39.7, 3.8 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Giants ML
Guido	-9.5 -110	43.5 -112	-415	+305
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -106	43.5 -111	-415	+333

All 25 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Giants ML
Guido	-9.5 -110	43.5 -112	-415	+305
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -110	43.5 -107	-435	+330
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	-9 -108	43.5 -108	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -110	43.5 -112	-415	+327
betPARX	-8.5 -110	43.5 -107	-435	+330
BetRivers	-8.5 -110	43.5 -107	-435	+330
BetUS	-10 +100	—	—	—
Bovada	-9.5 -110	43.5 -115	-430	+320
Caesars	-9.5 -112	43.5 -110	-460	+350
Courtside	-9.5 -108	43.5 -108	-468	+381
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	43.5 -110	-485	+370
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 58¢ -150 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	43.5 -105	-450	+350
Fliff	-9.5 -110	43.5 -110	-465	+315
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	43 -115	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8.5 -110	43 -115	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8.5 -110	43 -115	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -105	43.5 -109	-415	+327
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-490	+330
Pinnacle	-9.5 -106	43.5 -111	-415	+333
Polymarket	-9.5 -108	—	—	—
ReBet	-9.5 -110	43.5 -109	-469	+350
theScore Bet	-8 -115	43.5 -105	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 43.5

The pace number is 45.8, 2.4 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 39.7, 3.8 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Texans).

Kalshi thin: New York Giants +9.5, only $2 available; Over 43.5, only $2 available; Under 43.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jake Haener (Giants), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Marlin Klein (TE, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Nate Thomas (OT, Texans) and 2 more.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game
Massey	hasn't seen New York Giants and Houston Texans's last game
Market (21 books)	-9.5	-397

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	40.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 43.5	-108	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Houston Texans since 10-17 12:11; total has moved up 2.0.

Guido matches the consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Vikings -6

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 6Guido, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 5.5 to Vikings by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5Guido

Model number

49.78.2 pts over the market

Pace number

44.83.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

431.5 pts over the market

FPI

38.33.2 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.9, pace number 44.7 against a market total of 42.5, edge +0.7%). Still there: Caesars 41.5 -114, DraftKings 41.5 -115, BetMGM 42 -108.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 42.5 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Colts ML
Guido	-6 -105	41.5 -110	-260	+210
Kalshi	-5.5 -121 53¢	—	-263 71¢	+217 30¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 -112	42.5 +100	-252	+215

All 25 books

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Colts ML
Guido	-6 -105	41.5 -110	-260	+210
Kalshi	-5.5 -121 53¢	—	-263 71¢	+217 30¢
Bally Bet	-6 -107	42.5 -112	-275	+215
BetAnything	-6 -105	—	—	—
BetMGM	-6 -108	42 -108	-250	+210
BetOnline.ag	-6 -105	41.5 -110	-255	+211
betPARX	-6 -107	42.5 -112	-275	+215
BetRivers	-6 -107	42.5 -112	-275	+215
BetUS	-6 -105	—	—	—
Bovada	-6 -105	42 -110	-260	+215
Caesars	-6 -110	41.5 -114	-265	+215
Courtside	-6 -106	41.5 -113	-252	+215
DraftKings	-6 -108	41.5 -115	-258	+210
DraftKings Predictions	-5.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in
FanDuel	-5.5 -115	42.5 -106	-255	+210
Fliff	-5.5 -115	42.5 -110	-275	+200
Hard Rock Bet	-6 -110	42 -110	-260	+210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6 -110	42 -110	-260	+210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6 -110	42 -110	-260	+210
LowVig.ag	-6 +100	41.5 -107	-255	+211
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	—	-270	+202
Pinnacle	-5.5 -112	42.5 +100	-252	+215
Polymarket	-6.5 +104	42.5 +100	—	—
ReBet	-5.5 -120	42.5 -110	-265	+208
theScore Bet	-6 -105	42.5 -105	-250	+210

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Over 42.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.9, pace number 44.7 against a market total of 42.5, edge +0.7%). Still there: Caesars 41.5 -114, DraftKings 41.5 -115, BetMGM 42 -108.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Vikings).

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +5.5, only $496 available; Over 42.5, only $17 available; Under 42.5, only $323 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Tyler Warren (TE, Colts).

Guido: spread -6.0 here against -5.7 consensus.

Guido: total 41.5 here against 42.3 consensus.

Minnesota Vikings has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Market (21 books)	-6.0	-249

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	40.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Minnesota Vikings since 10-17 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.

Guido: spread -6.0 here against -5.7 consensus; total 41.5 here against 42.3 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 12:00pm

Jets -5.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Jets by 5.5Guido, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

Massey

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5Guido

Model number

41.82.3 pts over the market

Pace number

42.63.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

39.7on the market

FPI

41.72.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 42.6, 3.1 pts over the market's 39.5; the model says 41.8, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Dolphins ML
Guido	-5.5 -105	39.5 -105	-235	+185
Kalshi	-5.5	—	-229 68¢	—
Pinnacle	-5.5 -102	39.5 -108	-234	+201

All 25 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Dolphins ML
Guido	-5.5 -105	39.5 -105	-235	+185
Kalshi	-5.5	—	-229 68¢	—
Bally Bet	-5.5 -113	39.5 -108	-265	+210
BetAnything	-5.5 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	-5 -110	39.5 -108	-235	+190
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -105	39.5 -105	-235	+195
betPARX	-5.5 -113	39.5 -108	-265	+210
BetRivers	-5.5 -113	39.5 -108	-265	+210
BetUS	-5.5 -105	—	—	—
Bovada	-5 -110	39.5 -110	-240	+200
Caesars	-5.5 -110	39.5 -110	-235	+192
Courtside	-4.5 -103	38.5 -108	-200	+174
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	38.5 -110	-205	+170
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 56¢ -138 all-in	39.5 52¢ -117 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	40.5 -105	-245	+200
Fliff	-5.5 -110	39.5 -115	-245	+185
Hard Rock Bet	-5 -110	39.5 -115	-230	+190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5 -110	39.5 -115	-230	+190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5 -110	39.5 -115	-230	+190
LowVig.ag	-5.5 +100	39.5 -102	-235	+195
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	—	-238	+181
Pinnacle	-5.5 -102	39.5 -108	-234	+201
Polymarket	-5.5 -104	40.5 +104	—	—
ReBet	-4.5 -110	40.5 +100	-232	+185
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	39.5 -110	-240	+200

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 39.5

The pace number is 42.6, 3.1 pts over the market's 39.5; the model says 41.8, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jets).

Kalshi thin: New York Jets -5.5, only $5 available; Over 39.5, only $3 available; Under 39.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Dylan Parham (G, Jets), Nahshon Wright (CB, Jets) and 1 more.

Miami Dolphins has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Market (21 books)	-5.5	-225

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	40.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 39.5	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 10-17 12:11; total has moved up 0.7.

Guido matches the consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 3:05pm

Broncos -4

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Broncos by 4Guido, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Broncos by 4.5 to Broncos by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43Guido

Model number

40.82.2 pts under the market

Pace number

452 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

46.13.1 pts over the market

FPI

43.70.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 45, 1.9 pts over the market's 43.2; the model says 40.8, 2.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Broncos ML
Guido	+4 -110	43 -110	+165	-205
Kalshi	+4.5 -121 53¢	—	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+4 -106	43 -108	+178	-205

All 25 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Broncos ML
Guido	+4 -110	43 -110	+165	-205
Kalshi	+4.5 -121 53¢	—	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -109	43.5 -112	+172	-215
BetAnything	+4 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	+4 -108	43 -112	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -110	43 -110	+177	-205
betPARX	+3.5 -109	43.5 -112	+172	-215
BetRivers	+3.5 -109	43.5 -112	+172	-215
BetUS	+4 -110	—	—	—
Bovada	+4 -110	43 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+4 -112	43 -110	+180	-218
Courtside	+4.5 -113	43.5 +100	+174	-200
DraftKings	+4.5 -115	43.5 -102	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+4.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 56¢ -138 all-in	36¢ +163 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in
FanDuel	+4.5 -115	43.5 -118	+184	-220
Fliff	+3.5 -105	43.5 -110	+170	-225
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -105	43.5 -110	+180	-220
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -105	43.5 -110	+180	-220
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -105	43.5 -110	+180	-220
LowVig.ag	+4 -105	43 -107	+177	-205
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+169	-222
Pinnacle	+4 -106	43 -108	+178	-205
Polymarket	+3.5 +100	42.5	—	-213
ReBet	+4.5 -120	43.5 -109	+173	-216
theScore Bet	+4 -105	43.5 -115	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 43

The pace number is 45, 1.9 pts over the market's 43.2; the model says 40.8, 2.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos -4.5, only $2 available; Over 43.5, only $3 available; Under 43.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Carson Beck (Cardinals), Out; Sam Ehlinger (Broncos), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Starling Thomas V (CB, Cardinals), Wydett Williams Jr. (S, Cardinals), Andrew Wingard (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.

Guido: moneyline +172 here against +195 consensus.

Denver Broncos has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
Market (21 books)	+4.0	+172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	44.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

Guido: moneyline +172 here against +195 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 3:25pm

Rams -5.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Rams by 5.5Guido, -115

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47Guido

Model number

481 pts over the market

Pace number

49.22.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

50.83.8 pts over the market

FPI

461 pts under the market

The pace number is 49.2, 1.8 pts over the market's 47.4; the model says 48, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Rams ML
Guido	+5.5 -115	47 -110	+190	-240
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	—	—	-239 69¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	47.5 +104	+204	-238

All 25 books

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Rams ML
Guido	+5.5 -115	47 -110	+190	-240
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	—	—	-239 69¢
Bally Bet	+6 -114	47.5 -109	+205	-265
BetAnything	+5.5 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	+5.5 -105	47 -112	+200	-235
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -115	47 -110	+200	-240
betPARX	+6 -114	47.5 -109	+205	-265
BetRivers	+6 -114	47.5 -109	+205	-265
BetUS	+5.5 -115	—	—	—
Bovada	+5.5 -110	47 -105	+200	-240
Caesars	+5.5 -109	47 -110	+205	-250
Courtside	+5.5 -108	47.5 -103	+210	-244
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	47.5 -105	+205	-250
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 55¢ -132 all-in	45.5 58¢ -150 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
FanDuel	+5.5 -105	47.5 -105	+205	-250
Fliff	+5.5 -110	47.5 -105	+195	-260
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -105	47 -110	+210	-250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+5.5 -105	47 -110	+210	-250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+5.5 -105	47 -110	+210	-250
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -105	47 -107	+200	-240
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+191	-255
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	47.5 +104	+204	-238
Polymarket	+5.5 -108	46.5 -117	+203	—
ReBet	+5.5 -110	47.5 -109	+196	-246
theScore Bet	+6 -115	47.5 -105	+210	-250

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 47.5

The pace number is 49.2, 1.8 pts over the market's 47.4; the model says 48, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Raiders).

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $2 available; Under 47.5, only $56 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $398 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out; Ty Simpson (Rams), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Tutu Atwell (WR, Rams), Trent McDuffie (CB, Rams), Tristin McCollum (S, Raiders) and 4 more.

Guido: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Guido: moneyline +199 here against +226 consensus.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Market (21 books)	+5.5	+199

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 10-17 15:44; total has moved down 1.0.

Guido: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus; moneyline +199 here against +226 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

NFL Sun 25 Oct, 7:20pm

Seahawks -2.5

Nasty Number the same as the market · nothing here

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 2.5Guido, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game

The spread this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 2 to Seahawks by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5Guido

Model number

50.98.4 pts over the market

Pace number

46.54 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

46.54 pts over the market

FPI

43.51 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.5, 3.7 pts over the market's 42.8; the model says 50.9, 8.2 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Chiefs ML
Guido	-2.5 -110	42.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	—	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-1.5 -113	43 -108	-131	+116

All 22 books

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Chiefs ML
Guido	-2.5 -110	42.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	—	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -110	42.5 -112	-132	+110
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	—	—	—
BetMGM	-2 -110	42.5 -112	-135	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	42.5 -110	-135	+115
betPARX	-1.5 -110	42.5 -112	-132	+110
BetRivers	-1.5 -110	42.5 -112	-132	+110
BetUS	-1.5 -115	—	—	—
Bovada	-2 -110	43 -110	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -106	42.5 -110	-132	+111
Courtside	-2.5 -103	42.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	42.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	42.5 -115	-130	+110
Fliff	-1.5 -120	42.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	42.5 -107	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	—	-138	+108
Pinnacle	-1.5 -113	43 -108	-131	+116
Polymarket	—	42.5 -122	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -120	42.5 -120	-135	+111
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	42.5 -115	-130	+110

Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

The total · 43

The pace number is 46.5, 3.7 pts over the market's 42.8; the model says 50.9, 8.2 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -2.5, only $37 available; Kansas City Chiefs +2.5, only $26 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $205 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jalen Milroe (Seahawks), Out; Garrett Nussmeier (Chiefs), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Jared Wiley (TE, Chiefs), Josh Simmons (OT, Chiefs) and 3 more.

Guido: spread -2.5 here against -1.8 consensus.

Guido: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs's last game
Market (18 books)	-2.5	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Guido: spread -2.5 here against -1.8 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

Priced once the new ratings land.

The Receipts

Every pick the board posted, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks+0.8 ptsvs Pinnacle's close on 27 picks, 67% beat it
14-13 · -0.73 units · -3% ROI
27 picks · stale lines since Oct 11

Ratings era12-16-1-4.84 units · -17% ROI
29 picks · Sep 12 to Oct 10, the old rule

Vs the close+0.2 ptsbeat the close on 88 of 162 posted calls, every rung

Open1call waiting on a final

Units since Oct 11, every Nasty Pick in the order they played. Now -0.73.

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Since Oct 11 a Nasty Pick is a main book sitting off Pinnacle's number, and its receipt is closing line value against Pinnacle's close: the number we posted against where Pinnacle ended up at kickoff, with the win-loss record under it. Positive means we got the better number. The ratings-era record (the Four against the market, Sep 12 to Oct 10) stays as its own row and is never merged in. "Vs the close" is the same measure on every call the board made, every rung.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Nasty Picks since Oct 11 are stale lines, judged first on closing line value against Pinnacle's close; the ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10) keeps its own row. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks14-1352%-0.73 units27 games

Closing line value: +0.8 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 18 of 27. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 13 to 19

14-13 · -0.73 units

LostDelaware -1-110 · at Fanatics · Tue Oct 13Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders30-33-1.00

WonWestern Kentucky +1.5-120 · at FanDuel · Wed Oct 14Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston State Bearkats16-3+0.83

WonUAB +5.5-110 · at Caesars · Thu Oct 15East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers17-30+0.91

WonApp State +1-112 · at BetMGM · Fri Oct 16Appalachian State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers35-32+0.89

LostUNLV +1.5-120 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 17UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons31-41-1.00

WonColorado +15.5-115 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes27-24+0.87

WonHawai'i +15.5-115 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17New Mexico Lobos at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors21-10+0.87

WonJames Madison -11.5-110 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 17Georgia State Panthers at James Madison Dukes22-49+0.91

LostMississippi State +15.5-112 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 17Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers0-31-1.00

LostMichigan -5.5-118 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines18-21-1.00

WonNevada +15.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State Bison17-31+0.86

LostMissouri +5.5-114 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels3-31-1.00

LostRice +5.5-112 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice Owls38-17-1.00

WonSMU -8.5-114 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs13-23+0.88

LostSacramento State +16.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Ohio Bobcats at Sacramento State Hornets48-7-1.00

LostSouthern Miss +6.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles23-13-1.00

LostLouisville -14.5-107 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange34-26-1.00

WonFlorida +12.5-110 · at Fanatics · Sat Oct 17Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns27-24+0.91

LostArizona State +16.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders25-53-1.00

LostWisconsin +2.5-114 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 17Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA Bruins7-17-1.00

LostUL Monroe +16.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 17Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UL Monroe Warhawks24-0-1.00

WonVirginia Tech -8.5-115 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 17Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies24-34+0.87

LostNorthern Illinois +8.5-115 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 17Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming Cowboys23-41-1.00

WonChicago Bears +0.5-115 · at Fanatics · Sun Oct 18Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons31-23+0.87

WonLas Vegas Raiders +5.5-115 · at FanDuel · Sun Oct 18Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders33-30+0.87

WonNew Orleans Saints +1.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sun Oct 18New Orleans Saints at New York Giants34-27+0.86

WonPittsburgh Steelers -1.5-115 · at FanDuel · Sun Oct 18Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers26-19+0.87

Nasty Picks, ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10)12-16-143%-4.84 units29 games

Closing line value: -0.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 16 of 29. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

3-6 · -3.15 units

LostNew Mexico State +7-112 · at Caesars · Wed Oct 7New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers3-22-1.00

WonCalifornia +11-105 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears20-25+0.95

LostJames Madison -7-104 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles27-24-1.00

LostTexas A&M +3.5-108 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers6-27-1.00

LostUCF +8.5-110 · at Fanatics · Sat Oct 10UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys28-42-1.00

LostSan Diego State +14.5-105 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 10San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers14-66-1.00

WonUNLV +3+100 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels7-13+1.00

LostOver 38.5-105 · at Guido · Sun Oct 11Cleveland Browns at New York Jets12-17-1.00

WonOver 41.5-112 · at Kalshi · Sun Oct 11Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers22-34+0.89

Sep 29 to Oct 5

5-4-1 · +0.63 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5-107 · at Kalshi · Fri Oct 2Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

LostCincinnati +7-102 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 3Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats7-34-1.00

WonUCF +11.5-107 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 3UCF Knights at Houston Cougars17-27+0.93

WonJames Madison -15.5-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes17-45+0.91

PushOhio -3-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes13-10+0.00

LostLouisiana -6-104 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns20-23-1.00

LostMiami (OH) -10-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks24-20-1.00

WonSan Diego State +4.5-106 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 3Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs29-31+0.94

WonSouth Alabama -12.5-110 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 3UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars35-52+0.91

LostSouth Florida -5.5-110 · at Caesars · Sat Oct 3Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls17-13-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5-108 · at BetMGM · Sat Sep 26Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5-105 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3-108 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13-110 · at BetMGM · Sat Sep 26Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5-105 · Sat Sep 19Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5-110 · Sat Sep 19Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10-105 · Sat Sep 19Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10-105 · Sat Sep 12Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PK-115 · Sat Sep 12Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs, ratings era2-250%+1.32 units4 games

Closing line value: beat the close on 2 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

1-1 · +0.40 units

WonIowa ML+140 · at DraftKings · Fri Oct 9Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies41-24+1.40

LostTennessee Titans ML+295 · at FanDuel · Sun Oct 11Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans26-3-1.00

Sep 29 to Oct 5

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostWashington Commanders ML+184 · at FanDuel · Sun Oct 4Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders30-13-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan ML+192 · Sat Sep 12Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty13-1057%+2.09 units23 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 23. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 13 to 19

4-1 · +2.71 units

WonWashington +3-107 · at Guido · Fri Oct 16Washington Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers38-26+0.93

WonArmy -2-110 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 17Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights24-56+0.91

LostPittsburgh -6-110 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 17Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles21-27-1.00

WonMiami (OH) -9.5-110 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 17Akron Zips at Miami (OH) RedHawks14-34+0.91

WonTennessee +7.5-105 · at Guido · Sat Oct 17Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers10-26+0.95

Oct 6 to 12

2-2 · -0.10 units

WonSouth Carolina +10.5-105 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 10South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators38-19+0.95

LostPittsburgh -3.5-104 · at FanDuel · Sat Oct 10North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers21-17-1.00

LostLos Angeles Chargers +3.5-110 · Sun Oct 11Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers23-17-1.00

WonSan Francisco 49ers +3-105 · at Caesars · Sun Oct 11San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks32-29+0.95

Sep 29 to Oct 5

3-3 · -0.19 units

WonCleveland Browns +3-105 · at BetMGM · Thu Oct 1Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

WonBaylor +3.5-110 · at Caesars · Sat Oct 3Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils55-19+0.91

LostIllinois -9.5-110 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 3Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini24-17-1.00

LostMassachusetts -5-112 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen38-14-1.00

LostPhiladelphia Eagles +3.5-105 · at DraftKings · Sun Oct 4Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles24-20-1.00

WonSan Francisco 49ers -3-105 · at DraftKings · Sun Oct 4Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers14-24+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3-115 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5+105 · at Kalshi · Sun Sep 27New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5-112 · at DraftKings · Sun Sep 27Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3-105 · at Guido · Sat Sep 19James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7-115 · Sat Sep 19Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5+101 · at Kalshi · Sat Sep 19Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7-105 · at DraftKings · Sun Sep 20Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PK-115 · Sun Sep 13New York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty37-3750%-3.69 units74 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 36 of 57. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 13 to 19

3-2 · +0.27 units

WonJacksonville State ML-140 · at Guido · Tue Oct 13Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks24-27+0.71

WonTulane +6.5-102 · at Caesars · Fri Oct 16Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave17-31+0.98

LostBowling Green -6-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 17Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons32-31-1.00

WonHouston ML-175 · at Guido · Sat Oct 17Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston Cougars32-35+0.57

LostIndiana +3-115 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 17Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers19-15-1.00

Oct 6 to 12

6-3 · +2.89 units

WonKennesaw State +2.5+108 · at DraftKings Predictions · Wed Oct 7Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls27-26+1.08

WonWestern Kentucky ML+110 · at BetMGM · Thu Oct 8Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers13-34+1.10

WonWashington State +4-110 · at Fanatics · Fri Oct 9Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggies16-17+0.91

WonFresno State +8.5-108 · at Caesars · Sat Oct 10Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs38-31+0.93

LostNC State +4-112 · at DraftKings · Sat Oct 10Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack38-14-1.00

LostTulsa +3-105 · at BetMGM · Sat Oct 10Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen26-34-1.00

LostUTEP +11-113 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners30-13-1.00

WonWestern Michigan -14-105 · at Guido · Sat Oct 10Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos7-38+0.95

WonNew York Giants +3.5-108 · at BetMGM · Sun Oct 11New York Giants at Washington Commanders27-27+0.93

Sep 29 to Oct 5

7-3 · +3.52 units

WonTulsa +3+107 · at Caesars · Thu Oct 1North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

LostOver 45.5-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons9-14-1.00

LostUnder 61.0-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams56-26-1.00

WonUnder 47.0-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes31-14+0.91

WonOver 46.5-110 · Sat Oct 3Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29-31+0.91

WonOver 56.5-110 · Sat Oct 3Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack28-31+0.91

LostOver 50.0-110 · at Guido · Sat Oct 3Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies7-34-1.00

WonUNLV +1.5-116 · at Kalshi · Sat Oct 3California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels31-39+0.86

WonFresno State +2.5-110 · Sat Oct 3Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars26-6+0.91

WonJacksonville Jaguars +2.5-105 · at BetMGM · Sun Oct 4Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals22-17+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5-110 · at Caesars · Fri Sep 25Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0-105 · at Guido · Fri Sep 25Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0-110 · at Guido · Fri Sep 25Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7-108 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0-115 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0-112 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7-110 · Sat Sep 26Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5-110 · at Caesars · Sat Sep 26Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison ML-250 · at Kalshi · Sat Sep 26James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10-107 · at Caesars · Sat Sep 26Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6-110 · at DraftKings · Sat Sep 26UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5-110 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5-118 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3-115 · at DraftKings · Sat Sep 26Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12-105 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5-110 · at Guido · Sat Sep 26Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i ML-125 · at DraftKings · Sat Sep 26Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5-107 · at Guido · Sun Sep 27Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5-110 · Sat Sep 19Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0-110 · Sat Sep 19Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5-113 · Sat Sep 19Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0-110 · Sat Sep 19UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0-107 · Sat Sep 19LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5-110 · Sat Sep 19Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5-105 · Sat Sep 19NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5+105 · at Caesars · Sun Sep 20Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0-112 · Fri Sep 11Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5-110 · Fri Sep 11Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5-110 · Sat Sep 12South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14-105 · Sat Sep 12Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5-110 · Sat Sep 12Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1-110 · Sat Sep 12Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5-105 · Sat Sep 12Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5-110 · Sat Sep 12UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0-107 · Sat Sep 12South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0-105 · Sat Sep 12UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0-115 · Sat Sep 12San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0-110 · Sat Sep 12Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0-110 · Sun Sep 13Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0-110 · Sun Sep 13New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5-110 · Sun Sep 13Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5-107 · Sun Sep 13Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0-110 · Sun Sep 13Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5-112 · Sun Sep 13Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0-110 · Mon Sep 14Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

Guido stale numbers12-571%+5.85 units17 games

Guido's lone numbers, a point or more off Pinnacle and the other main books, graded at Guido's own price · +0.7 pts vs Pinnacle's close on 16. A private book, so these are a note on the card and never a Nasty Pick. 1 still open.

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Its own record, one unit a total, graded at the number, price and book each one posted at. Not counted in the Nasty Pick record. 25-22, +0.43 units. Beat the close on 26 of 43, +0.5 points of closing line value on average. 32 posted and still to play. By market: the game total 22-21; the first-half total 1-0; a team total 2-1.

The games

LostOver 42.5 -108 at DraftKingsLos Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefstotal 28, 1.1 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 51.5 +100 at DraftKings PredictionsArizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Ramstotal 34, 0.1 pts behind the close-1.00

WonUnder 42 -110 at BetMGMCarolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eaglestotal 39, beat the close by 2.9 pts+0.91

LostBaltimore Ravens team total Over 22.5 -121 at CaesarsBaltimore Ravens at Cleveland Brownsscored 10-1.00

WonNew York Giants team total Over 22.5 -124 at CaesarsNew Orleans Saints at New York Giantsscored 27+0.81

WonOver 42.5 -105 at FanDuelHouston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguarstotal 65, 0.1 pts behind the close+0.95

LostOver 45.5 -108 at FanDuelNew Mexico at Hawai'itotal 31, beat the close by 0.9 pts-1.00

WonOver 44.5 -105 at FanDuelFresno State at San Diego Statetotal 49, beat the close by 1.7 pts+0.95

LostOver 48.5 -112 at BetMGMSan José State at UTEPtotal 35, 2.7 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 52.5 -110 at DraftKingsLouisiana Tech at UL Monroetotal 24, beat the close by 3.4 pts-1.00

LostUnder 58.5 -105 at FanDuelOklahoma State at Houstontotal 67, 3.8 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 42.5 -110 at DraftKingsKentucky at Oklahomatotal 34, beat the close by 1 pt-1.00

WonOver 49.5 -110 at FanaticsUtah at Coloradototal 51, beat the close by 0.1 pts+0.91

WonUnder 61.5 -110 at FanDuelArkansas State at Southern Misstotal 36, 0.1 pts behind the close+0.91

WonOver 45.5 -110 at BetMGMNevada at North Dakota Statetotal 48, 2.6 pts behind the close+0.91

LostUnder 54.5 -114 at FanDuelWashington State at Oregon Statetotal 78, beat the close by 2.4 pts-1.00

LostOver 45.5 -105 at FanDuelWisconsin at UCLAtotal 24, 2.6 pts behind the close-1.00

WonUnder 49.5 -110 at FanDuelTroy at Louisianatotal 39, beat the close by 0.1 pts+0.91

WonOver 45.5 -110 at BetMGMTulsa at Ricetotal 55, beat the close by 0.7 pts+0.91

WonOver 49.5 -110 at FanaticsArizona State at Texas Techtotal 78, beat the close by 0.4 pts+0.91

WonOver 48.5 -127 at DraftKings PredictionsAuburn at Georgiatotal 51, beat the close by 1.8 pts+0.79

WonUnder 52.5 -114 at FanDuelTCU at Baylortotal 23, beat the close by 2 pts+0.88

LostOver 54.5 -110 at FanDuelWake Forest at Californiatotal 48, 0.6 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 50.5 -112 at FanDuelNebraska at Oregontotal 31, beat the close by 0.9 pts-1.00

WonOver 47.5 -110 at CaesarsUNLV at Air Forcetotal 72, beat the close by 1.1 pts+0.91

WonOver 45.5 -133 at DraftKings PredictionsAkron at Miami (OH)total 48, beat the close by 2.3 pts+0.75

LostUnder 56.5 -115 at FanDuelNavy at UTSAtotal 72, beat the close by 3.4 pts-1.00

WonOver 38.5 -110 at FanDuelNorthern Illinois at Wyomingtotal 64, beat the close by 3.5 pts+0.91

LostOver 44.5 -110 at FanDuelMassachusetts at Buffalototal 43, 2.1 pts behind the close-1.00

WonOver 45.5 -110 at FanDuelPittsburgh at Boston Collegetotal 48, 2.8 pts behind the close+0.91

WonUnder 49.5 -105 at FanDuelOhio State at Indianatotal 34, beat the close by 0.1 pts+0.95

LostOver 43.5 -110 at FanDuelWestern Michigan at Central Michigantotal 35, 0.6 pts behind the close-1.00

WonOver 55.5 -104 at FanDuelLouisville at Syracusetotal 60, beat the close by 0.1 pts+0.96

LostUnder 59.5 -110 at FanDuelRutgers at Marylandtotal 67, beat the close by 3.6 pts-1.00

LostOver 42.5 +100 at KalshiPenn State at Michigantotal 39, beat the close by 1 pt-1.00

WonUnder 54.5 -110 at FanDuelVirginia at SMUtotal 36, beat the close by 2.7 pts+0.91

WonOver 51.5 -110 at BetMGMApp State at Coastal Carolinatotal 67, 2.9 pts behind the close+0.91

WonOver 51.5 -110 at FanDuelWashington at Purduetotal 64, 1.1 pts behind the close+0.91

LostOver 52.5 -108 at BetMGMMemphis at Tulanetotal 48, beat the close by 3.2 pts-1.00

WonUnder 42.5 -104 at FanDuelSeattle Seahawks at Denver Broncostotal 31, beat the close by 2 pts+0.96

LostOver 50.5 -110 at FanDuelWestern Kentucky at Sam Houstontotal 19, beat the close by 3 pts-1.00

Won1st half Over 21.5 -110 at FanDuelFlorida International at Jacksonville Statefirst half 34+0.91

WonOver 46.5 -110 at FanDuelDelaware at Middle Tennesseetotal 63, beat the close by 2.6 pts+0.91

WonDelaware team total Over 23.5 -128 at FanDuelDelaware at Middle Tennesseescored 30+0.78

LostUnder 54.5 -105 at DraftKingsDetroit Lions at Arizona Cardinalstotal 66, 0.3 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 39.5 -110 at BetMGMCleveland Browns at New York Jetstotal 29, 1.4 pts behind the close-1.00

LostOver 41.5 -110 at BetMGMMinnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saintstotal 36, 0.3 pts behind the close-1.00

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (stale lines, since Oct 11; incl. Nastiest)	14-13	51.9%	-0.7 u
Nasty Pick (ratings era, Sep 12 to Oct 10)	12-16-1	42.9%	-4.8 u
Nasty Dog (ratings era)	2-2	50.0%	+1.3 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty the old ratings rule would have posted	1-1	50.0%	-0.1 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	12-9	57.1%	+2.2 u
A Little Nasty	37-37	50.0%	-3.7 u
Not Nasty	307 games	—	—	no call to grade

NastyScores Buck Nasty Loading scores…

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number, Buck's read on the game. The Cut is a main book off the sharp number. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

Nasty Picks is built and run by one person, with every build automated: the feeds, the Nasty Sauce, the picks, the grading and the publish. Picks post on a schedule, never by hand, and a posted pick freezes at its number and price. The only hand on the ledger is a dated correction, noted on the Receipts. Up since September 2026.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%. What comes out is the Nasty Number: Buck's read on the game, on every card. It tops out at Damn Near Nasty.

The Cut

A main book sitting a point or more off Pinnacle's number and off the other main books, at the book's own price. The sharp number moved and this one hasn't. That's a Nasty Pick: this number, at this book, now. Under it is Damn Near Nasty (the Four against the number), or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every pick graded at the number it was posted at, with closing line value against Pinnacle's close as the first number and win-loss under it. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why. The ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10) keeps its own row.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

The Lab

The workbench. What the results are teaching the model, what moved, and every number the board is tuned on. Nothing here is a pick.

57 priced · 3 a little nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · Guido just now · audit clean

Not every source loaded: nfelo is 2 weeks behind, its ratings are stale. Anything that depends on those is missing from the board rather than guessed at. 12 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 1 game already kicked off and is left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 12 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 22 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 69 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 sit under the Cut and worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 9:06pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favorites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.6Miami (OH) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewastoward Miami (OH) RedHawksagainst the public
→ 2.7Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcatstoward Texas State Bobcatswith the public
→ 2.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanestoward Pittsburgh Panthersagainst the public
→ 2.3Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gopherstoward Iowa Hawkeyeswith the public
→ 2.0Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rocketstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
→ 2.0Old Dominion Monarchs at Louisiana Tech Bulldogstoward Louisiana Tech Bulldogswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-18 18:11.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 316 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 24%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.08	407
SP+	11.20	289
FPI	11.33	342
Massey	11.36	283
Sagarin	12.07	397

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.50	0.02	288
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.00	283
SP+	1.00	0.00	0.00	235
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.02	316

The line archive, 407 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 219 times, against it 140, and sat still 48. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 387 games. The close misses the final by 11.04, the open by 11.34, our raw ratings number by 12.16, Pinnacle's close by 11.00. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.91, Pinnacle 11.00, LowVig.ag 11.00.

The Cut tracker. 26 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 5 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 3-2, +0.80 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 6; picks that got there by the book lagging the consensus: 10-13, -4.20 units, +0.7 pts vs the close on 23; picks that got there by none: 5-6, -0.35 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 7; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 3-5, -1.75 units, -0.8 pts vs the close on 7.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 72 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.34	72
The market	9.40	89
nfelo	9.54	88
FPI	9.55	73
Sagarin	9.62	89

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	1.50	0.01	71
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.01	72
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.02	72
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	71

The line archive, 89 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 45 times, against it 28, and sat still 16. Our side taken at the open finished 0.72 points better than the close on average over 82 games. The close misses the final by 9.49, the open by 9.37, our raw ratings number by 9.61, Pinnacle's close by 9.52. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.29, Polymarket 8.84, Bally Bet 9.12.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by the book lagging the consensus: 4-1, +2.49 units, +0.9 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units.

The head start. 190 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 78 times, against it 50, average 0.32 points; the full board kept the side 72 times, flipped 4, went quiet 114.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty. Judged on where the total went after we read it, not on the final score, which is far too noisy to learn from in a week. College: 58 totals read inside the window and finished, the market closed 16% (±10%) of the pace number's gap by kickoff and 22% (±9%) of the ratings'; posted 21-16, +2.80 units. NFL: 8 totals read inside the window and finished, the market closed -37% (±19%) of the pace number's gap by kickoff and -55% (±36%) of the ratings'; posted 4-4, -0.37 units. The bar (3 points) and the window (12 hours) are set by this number.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-10-06, 2026-10-07, 2026-10-08, 2026-10-09, 2026-10-10, 2026-10-11, 2026-10-12, 2026-10-12). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	290	10.76	11.16	7-6
ratings 0%	290	11.17	11.16	7-6
ratings 5%	290	11.09	11.16	7-6
ratings 15%	290	10.96	11.16	7-6
ratings 45%	290	10.56	11.16	7-6
Sagarin half a vote	290	10.75	11.16	7-6
Sagarin no vote	290	10.75	11.16	7-6
FPI a vote and a half	290	10.76	11.16	7-6
Massey a vote and a half	290	10.76	11.16	7-6

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favorites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why totals are never a Nasty Pick. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. So totals post in their own section, Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty, against the opener where the lab found an edge, graded in their own record, never as a Nasty Pick.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.69Points off per game at that weight

10.69The market on its own

390Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 4%, give or take 17% (one standard error, 390 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-10-18	College	27% → 24%	310 games say 0% beats 27% by 0.04 points a game
2026-10-17	College	30% → 27%	301 games say 0% beats 30% by 0.08 points a game
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
nfelo	90	9.47
The market	498	10.75
Massey	357	10.92
FPI	417	10.99
SP+	289	11.20
Sagarin	488	11.60

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	198-187	51%
1.5 to 3.0	16-15	52%
3.0 to 5.0	25-31	45%
5.0 to 8.0	4-9	31%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 1,004,136 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	589	1.53
FanDuel	617	1.48
ReBet	391	1.44
BetRivers	587	1.41
betPARX	379	1.40
Bally Bet	379	1.40
Courtside	361	1.37
Kalshi	391	1.36
LowVig.ag	562	1.36
BetOnline.ag	576	1.35
MyBookie.ag	489	1.33
theScore Bet	395	1.28
Hard Rock Bet	373	1.24
Fanatics	530	1.23
BetMGM	576	1.23
BetUS	495	1.20
Caesars	528	1.17
Bovada	555	1.15
Guido	520	1.10
BetAnything	343	1.10
Pinnacle	559	1.09
Polymarket	199	1.07
Fliff	365	1.01
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	87	0.98
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	87	0.97

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 7 days ago
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
nfelo updated 2 days ago

Under the hood

65 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.

Closing line value

+0.31Sides: pts vs close, 63 bets, beat it 67%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 193 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: the market moved toward the Sniff's side on 79 of 193 (agreement, not a better number), +0.3 points on average, and the full board kept the side 72 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 117. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Toward the side	Full board
NC State at Stanford	NC State -7	-7	-7	+0.0	no call
Boston College at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech Yellow -4.5	-4.5	-4.8	+0.3	no call
Colorado at Oklahoma State	Colorado +13.9	13.9	13.4	+0.5	no call
Hawai'i at Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois +7.5	7.5	6.5	+1.0	no call
North Dakota State at New Mexico	New Mexico -4.2	-4.2	-4.1	-0.1	no call
Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech -10	-10	-10.4	+0.4	no call
Rice at Florida Atlantic	Rice +10.1	10.1	10	+0.1	no call
Sacramento State at Ball State	Ball State -10.4	-10.4	-10.6	+0.2	no call
Tennessee at South Carolina	Tennessee -0.7	-0.7	2.1	-2.8	no call
UTSA at Tulane	Tulane Green +4	4	2.2	+1.8	no call
Vanderbilt at Kentucky	Kentucky -11.4	-11.4	-11.2	-0.2	no call
West Virginia at TCU	TCU Horned -6.9	-6.9	-7.5	+0.6	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 358 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	293	13.3	95-111 (46%)	64-61 (51%)
Massey	293	13.0	71-84 (46%)	33-42 (44%)
The blend	298	12.9	74-74 (50%)	30-36 (45%)

NFL, 81 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	77	11.0	19-26 (42%)	8-12 (40%)
FPI	74	10.5	17-12 (59%)	8-4 (67%)
The blend	77	10.5	13-13 (50%)	3-5 (38%)

The detailed numbers

+0.30Avg points vs close

66%Beat the close

We said	Bets	Predicted	Actual
50-55%	34	53%	47%
55-60%	25	56%	48%

The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 25 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Oct 18

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.